By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

New Strikes on Yemen

A subject we have reported on for a long time continues to exist. On 16 Mai 2025, the Israeli military said it carried out strikes on “terrorist infrastructure” on Friday, saying on X that the two ports had been used by the Houthi rebel group to “transfer weapons”.

This in spite of the fact that Donald Trump claimed on 6 May that the United States is abandoning its daily bombing campaign of Yemen based on an understanding with the Houthis as Oman confirms that it has brokered a ceasefire between Washington and the armed group.

Al Masirah TV, a Houthi-affiliated outlet, also reported Israeli strikes on the two ports. The extent of any damage was not clear, and there no immediate reports of casualties. The Houthis have carried out a campaign of attacks against Israel in self-proclaimed solidarity with Palestinians after Israel launched its assault on Gaza in October 2023.

Israel has carried out strikes in response, including one on May 6 that damaged Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa and killed several people.

Israel Strikes Yemen's Red Sea Ports at Hodeidah and Salif:

Friday’s attacks were the first since US President Donald Trump agreed to a ceasefire deal with the Houthis earlier this month, with the US halting its attacks on Yemen and the group agreeing to end its attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

The US and Yemen’s Houthis agreed to an Oman-mediated deal to cease trading attacks after weeks of air strikes. However a ceasefire deal between Yemen’s Houthis and the United States does not include any operations against Israel, the group’s chief negotiator has announced.

As we have seen, the Houthis are an armed, political, and theological group active in Yemen, a Middle Eastern country located at the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Originating from the Forum of Young Believers, a religious and cultural organization founded in 1992, the group initially claimed to be peaceful. However, it split into two factions: one remaining moderate, the other advocating armed struggle, which later became a rebel group.

On Wednesday, Mai 7, Mohammed Abdul Salam said Trump's remarks were "a reflection of Washington's frustration after failing to protect Israeli ships and contain the fallout of its involvement". Meaning after seven and a half weeks of heavy airstrikes on more than 1,000 separate targets, the Trump administration’s bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen ended as abruptly as it began.

They have also targeted ships believed to be linked to Israel off the coast of Yemen.

On May 4, a Houthi missile struck the perimeter of Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv for the first time, an attack that led most foreign airlines serving Tel Aviv to suspend their flights. In retaliation for the attacks, the Israeli military has carried out several strikes in recent months against Houthi targets in Yemen, bombing power stations and cement plants.

On May 6, in an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, President Donald Trump simply announced that the Iranian-backed Houthis “don’t want to fight any more” and that the United States would “accept their word” and “stop the bombings.” Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi confirmed on X that his country had brokered a cease-fire agreement between Washington and the Houthis, in which the two sides agreed not to target each other. Despite the Houthis’ highly effective attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and continuing attacks against Israel, the agreement does not explicitly restrict Houthi actions against any country other than the United States; the absence from the agreement of Israel and “Israeli-linked” ships—a term the Houthis have interpreted broadly in the past—is notable.

What remained puzzling about the White House announcement is that the Houthis’ position remains essentially unchanged from when the Trump administration began its escalated air campaign on March 15. Ostensibly, Operation Rough Rider—as the U.S. campaign was called—was launched to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and to reestablish deterrence against Iran and its proxies. When the operation began, the Houthis were explicitly targeting Israel as well as Israeli-linked ships—though not U.S. ships—and saying they would continue to do so until Israel ends its war in Gaza. Since the outset of the U.S. campaign, Houthi leaders have made clear that if Washington stopped the bombing, they would stop attacking U.S. ships, but their attacks on Israel would continue. After Trump announced the May 6 agreement, the Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam reiterated this position. In other words, after a U.S. military operation that cost more than $2 billion and supposedly had a far-reaching impact on Houthi military capabilities, the U.S.-Houthi cease-fire does little but codify the Houthis’ original stance. Although Trump claimed that the Houthis “capitulated,” the group retains its hold on power and has called the deal a “victory for Yemen.”

For the Trump administration at the time, the cease-fire offered a quick end to what was an increasingly untenable campaign. Not only was the bombing enormously expensive; it was also raising concerns among policymakers in Washington that the United States could slide into another forever war in the Middle East. This scenario was no doubt pushed by Vice President JD Vance and the more neo-isolationist members of the administration, who have been skeptical of U.S. military adventurism from the start.

It remains unclear if this denouement will create a meaningful enough pause for the Trump administration to wash its hands of the Houthi problem. But if Trump turns a blind eye to continued Houthi attacks on Israel, there is reason to believe that the Houthis will, for now, avoid attacking U.S. assets. The Houthis would almost certainly have survived, even if the U.S. bombing campaign had continued, but its termination nevertheless has many upsides for them. The group’s leaders can now claim to have gone head-to-head with a superpower and won and be relieved of the pressure the U.S. bombing was putting on them. They can also focus on Israel, which is engaged in its punishing air campaign in retaliation for Houthi strikes, including a ballistic missile strike near Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport in early May. Importantly, the deal with the United States makes it very unlikely that Washington will support a ground offensive against the Houthis by the internationally recognized government of Yemen, an internally divided coalition of anti-Houthi factions which controls the southern and eastern parts of the country. Combined with airpower, such an offensive would arguably be the most effective way to truly pressure the group and loosen its hold on power, although it would carry significant risks.

 

Why Bombing the Houthis Won’t Work

The humiliating gaffes of Signalgate are only one measure of the Donald Trump team’s recklessness. The air war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the subject of the texts, could end up becoming a scandal in its own right and for similar reasons. It is a war with no apparent strategy apart from Trump’s hunger for what he calls “swift and unrelenting action” on almost every front. And it is likely to backfire badly if the administration doesn’t change course.

The Signal discussion didn’t touch on how the Yemen bombings would affect Washington’s current diplomatic overture to Tehran. Hegseth and the President likely think it can’t hurt: Tehran will see Trump’s Washington as tougher for it and capable of coercing the Iranians into nuclear negotiations. The Vice President doesn’t believe Washington should go to war with Tehran over the nuclear issue, let alone Suez Canal traffic. If he isn’t willing to bomb an Iranian proxy for fear of a slippery slope, then he is surely unlikely to want to bomb its sponsor.

 

Jeddhah Waterfront

 

How It All Began

As we have seen the Houthis emerged as a military force in 2004 in an uprising against the Yemen government. Initially about 2,000 strong, they were equipped with little more than light weapons and an unshakable belief in their cause. By 2009, the conflict had escalated, and the government launched a massive offensive against the Houthis called Operation Scorched Earth, backed with tanks and airpower.

In 2011, protests in the capital, Sana’a, erupted into a full-scale revolution, and the Houthis joined the struggle for power in what became a civil war. They seized Sana’a in early 2014 and started working outwards. By this time, the Houthi force numbered more than 100,000 and had evolved considerably.

When the Houthis took over Sana'a in 2014, they systematically absorbed much of Yemen's armed forces and their intelligence services. Many of the officers and enlisted men across all branches were integrated into the Houthi organization.

Strikes have targeted Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, as well as the port city of Hodeidah and the Houthi stronghold of Sa’ada. The targets include densely populated areas, but assessing the impact on civilians of the strikes, which are coordinated with and supported by UK armed forces, is difficult.

 

 

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