Proposed by Aristides
Zolberg in 1976 a model still considered to have
validity today argues that societies tend to have three primary sets of segmentation:
cultural, territorial, and class-based. Ethnicity thus can be located as a type
of cultural segmentation that may also intersect class and territorial
segmentation and thereby generate a differing set of issues precisely because
these intersections involve overlapping identities, which may reinforce one
another.
The first type would
include the past controversy in Britain over the refusal of some Sikhs to wear
a helmet rather than their turban while riding a motorcycle, and the demands of
Latino Americans for Spanish-instruction public schools in some sections of the
southwestern United States. Unreinforced by other lines of cleavage, the issues
generated by ethno-cultural differences have typically been resolvable within
the legal systems or only minimally disruptive to the political process of
developed polities.
The second type of
ethnicity, ethnoclass segmentation, is
distinguishable by substantial differences in social-class status separating
one ethnic group from others (or the majority) in society. Issues typical of
this category would include questions involving the right of foreign workers to
receive the same civil and economic liberties as citizens. In addition to
African Americans, groups falling into this class would include Native
Americans and Mexican Americans in the United States, Asians in Britain, the
guest workers of Western Europe, and the Romany (gypsies) throughout Central
and Eastern Europe.
The third variety, is
found in the lines of intersection between ethnocultural and territorial
segmentation. These groups frequently possess a distinct set of historical and
cultural customs, language, and religion, and the issues generated by the
ethnoterritorial cleavage typically involve the efforts of the ethnoterritorial
community to preserve its cultural distinctiveness, to obtain a fair share of
the broader society's resources, and/or to achieve a greater control over its
own political lite. Examples include the Scots and Welsh in Britain, the
Flemish and Walloons in Belgium, the Quebecois in Canada, the Corsicans in
France, the Basques in Spain, and the Hungarian minority in the current Slovak
Republic.
One could ad here of course that, there is that type of ethnic
segmentation that involves the intersection of highly salient ethnic, class,
and territorial consciousness. Issues typical of this category would tend to
reflect a pattern of reinforcing cleavages. Like for example in Northern
Ireland, where the numerical minority "Catholics" have been
discriminated against politically and economically, while also having been
forced into largely segregated living areas.
In any case, the
multiethnic and multinational states of today are the consequence of historical
state-making processes. Be they the result of the European model of expanding
centers conquering ethnically distinct communities on the periphery, the settler
society model as rulers, with or displaced indigenous peoples, opening the door
to immigrants from different points of origin, or the developing world format,
where imperial outposts have retained their multinational character as
independent states. More recently, ethnopolitics has been further reshaped by
the postwar recovery of Europe and an accelerating globalization process, both
of which resulted in the movement of large numbers from their (usually)
developing world homelands to immigrant lifestyles in the more developed
regions of the world. Under the weight of these forces, the basis of ethnicity
has been affected.
In some areas-for
example the more rural subcultures of Nigeria and newer, immigrant
neighborhoods in the cities of the developed world-ethnicity can still be
defined genetically. In advanced democratic and economically advanced postcommunist countries (as we shell exemplify in our case
study), ethnoterritorial minorities long integrated into their respective
states' borders and the third-generation descendants of immigrants are more
likely to measure their "otherness" by their pre-union history, areas
of origin, and/ or cultural barometers of ethnic distinctiveness.
As to how
ethnopolitical communities become mobilized, given the number of variables
involved is inconclusive to date because, even the relative weight of such
macro-elements as changes in the economic environment versus such
micro-variables as the role of political elites in the emergence of
ethnopolitical self-awareness, both demands, and conflicts.
Ethnic clashes have
occurred without the immediate presence of instigators in advanced democracies;
for example, the Los Angeles riots related to the Rodney King case and the 2005
clashes between Romany and Muslim underclasses in the south of France. Conversely,
even in Africa's deepest backwaters, the greatest carnage has usually been
associated with the presence of radical voices inciting violence, as in the
1994 massacres in Rwanda, where radio broadcasters were urging Hutus to
massacre their Tutsi neighbors.
The safest conclusion
so far has been that the relative weight of various elements in inducing
and shaping ethnic agendas and conflict varies in terms of area (i.e., jus soli
immigrant societies such as the United States versus countries defining citizenship
in terms of parental ethnicity), circumstance (the different political
environments of 1960s Britain, Franco's Spain, de Gaulle's France, and Gowon's
Nigeria vis-a-vis ethnoterritorial movements), and time (Europe's Muslims
before and after the twenty-first-century terrorist attacks in Spain, Holland,
and Britain). On the other hand, whatever the time, place, or circumstance, it
is clear that a different set of elements shapes the emergence of politically
salient ethnoclass issues than ethnoterritorial ones,
and that once mobilization has occurred ethnopolitics evinces quite different
characteristics and trajectories when the ethnic cleavage is linked to the
economic cleavages in societies than when it is reinforced by territorial lines
of segmentation.
Although the
diversity of variables of potential importance in explaining why ethnic issues
become politically salient remains astounding, the bedrock factor is the sense
of ethnic identity itself. To be sure, conflicts in ethnically diverse
countries may be ethnically patterned without being ethnically caused; however,
once the ethnic element is infused into the conflict, its character
fundamentally changes. Additional members of the ethnic community may join in
the conflict because of the instrumental utility of ethnic identity in
mobilizing support for a cause-particularly when that cause can be portrayed in
terms of the group's ability to gain control of its destiny. Likewise, once
invoked the ethnic factor can significantly affect the tractability of the
conflict, regardless of its fundamental cause.
Also, as we shall see
in part 2 about Eastern Europe, ethnic identity does not have to be
persistently active to be politically significant. It may be relatively latent
in comparison to other forms of social identification. This is especially a
feature of ethnoterritorial conflict in Western Europe, and one of the reasons
why the 1950s and 1960s witnessed considerable disagreement over whether the
regional movements there reflected a resurgence of older identities, new ones
in the process of formation, or some combination of the two. But whether the
movement represents a resurgence of older identities or a development of a new,
regionalized one is less important than the fact that there was, an ethnic
self-identity present upon which these movements were launched and which
subsequently affected their ability to achieve a significant political impact.
Recognition of this relevance focuses attention away from historical
considerations and on those factors that have subsequently affected the
activation of ethnic identity and its salience in policy processes-for example,
the importance of the region to the parties controlling the state, the openness
of the political leadership to accommodation, the political skill of the
ethnopolitical spokesmen in exploiting their advantages, the intensity of the
grievances, and the nature of the den;lands being
articulated.
There is a similar
need for a sense of ethnic identity (and community) to exist amongst nonspatial
minorities, immigrants, refugees, or foreign workers before their concerns
become politically important as a result their own actions. Otherwise, members
of these categories are dependent upon nonmembers to articulate their
interests, and although this has frequently occurred, these exterior champions
of minority causes have not been particularly successful. Yet, left to
themselves, the structural and political developments surveyed in our cases do
not support much confidence in the ability of ethnoclass
minorities to mobilize in defense of their interests. To the contrary, their
individual ethnic identities have worked against crosscommunal
mobilization on the basis of their common interest as "outsiders."
What is evident
is that political and structural developments occurring in countries hosting ethnoclass minorities have activated in the majority
populations an ethnic (not just class) reaction. This includes the rapid
expansion of postwar economies, which necessitated the addition of outside
workers to the domestic work force in developed countries, the gradual trend of
the guest workers becoming permanent parts of their host countries' economies,
the resulting social conflict between host country nationals and the foreign
workers and their families, the economic downswing in most European states that
negated the need for large numbers of foreign workers, and the emergence of
globally organized, anti-Western Muslim organizations launching terrorist acts in
countries containing Muslim minorities.
Meanwhile, in
Central Europe it is the often internally divided Romany community who have
felt the greatest discrimination since the fall of communism, suddenly becoming
the unprotected targets of frustrations that built up in majority communities during
the communist era, when socialist-styled affirmative action policies seemingly
gave the Romany preferential treatment. And in the developing world, ethnoclass consciousness has fueled postindependence
conflicts whose roots are traceable to such developments during the colonial
era as European decisions to import workers from outside the states being
created and economic and educational policies that favored some communities
over others.
Ethnoterritorial
demands cover a wide range, although all require central government concessions
to the ethnoterritorial community and some can lead to dissolution of the state
and/or international involvement in a country's ethnopolitical conflicts. As previously
noted, they include output-oriented demands (i.e., financial assistance for a
downward spiralling regional economy), essentially
nationalistic (authority- and regime-oriented) demands for a share of
decision-making authority and/or some form of political autonomy, and-at the
extreme-groups seeking to purge their land of other communities or separate
from the states containing them. In none of the cases examined is there
complete consensus over the content of the demands to be placed before political
authorities. Each case exhibits a diverse range of factions with varying
opinions about the goals to be pursued and how stridently they are to be
pushed. In this sense, ethnoterritorial politics tend to be more groups
politics than a category of group politics in which a government is addressed
by a single, goal-oriented organization.
In contrast, ethnoclass conflicts involve two distinct types of issues:
those involving the conditions of the indigenous, territorially dispersed, and
immigrant ethnic minorities, and those concerned with the presence of these
groups. To recap, issues related to the status of foreigners and indigenous
underclasses include their need for more and better housing, health care, and
educational facilities, civil rights protection, and affirmative action
policies. Where ethnoclass minorities are the issue,
however, debate revolves around such issues as the presence of large numbers of
foreigners as a threat to a country's unique character and indigenous job
market, and-more recently-the danger of foreign communities becoming breeding
grounds for terrorists.
Most complex are the
issues to be found in ethnoclass-territorial
conflicts of the type found in Northern Ireland. These often combine demands
found in both ethnoclass and ethnoterritorial
politics. Ultimately, however, these conflicts tend to raise on all sides the
issue of the political entity's legitimacy; in the case of Ulster, the issue is
the legitimacy of Ulster's political institutions in the eyes of its Catholics
and of the Catholics presence in Ulster to its Protestant militants.
Regarding the range
of political actors involved in the conveyance of policy demands, again some
differences between our categories have quite clearly emerged. Collectively,
the ethnoterritorial communities we have examined have both produced a wide
range of different types of organizational spokesmen and have utilized most
conceivable means of influencing their respective political processes, from
cultural associations and regionalist parties to direct action organizations
practicing civil disobedience (e.g., the Welsh Language Society) to clandestine
groups employing overt violence aimed at symbolic (the French national panks targeted by Corsican and Breton extremists) and human
targets (i.e., ETA militants' activities In Spain) to declarations of secession
and the fighting of civil wars to achieve independence. In the developed
democratic world, these actors have also included factions or wings of broader,
system-wide, political organizations, such as the Labour
Party in Scotland.
The modes of
expressing demands related to ethnoclass issues
depend on the nature of a conflict. Demands raised on behalf of foreigners can
come from the minority community itself, interest groups within the host
country, the countries of the immigrants' origins, the host country's
government, and transnational organizations. When the foreign communities
themselves are the issue, policy demands tend to originate in three sources:
domestic nationals (public opinion), domestic interest groups and parties such
as Le Pen's, and the government of the host country, usually when it is seeking
to placate its majority's sentiments. Contrary to the pattern prevalent in
ethnoterritorial politics, the principal system-wide parties in the developed
world have tended not to playa particularly active role in the generation of
these demands but have functioned more as their recipients with the expectation
that they will act upon them.
Among those
participating in ethnoclass politics there is a
considerable variance in the amount and intensity of activity. Understandably
but also paradoxically, the groups most directly affected today by policy
responses to ethnoclass demands (the foreign workers,
immigrants, Romany, and others) tend to be the least active, in part because
these communities are often of such a diverse mixture of nationalities and so
mutually competitive in the economy that they have remained politically
disorganized. But it also reflects the even more fundamental weakness of their
bargaining condition as politically powerless minorities generally lacking in
economic influence and the power of numbers in elections, while their opponents
in the Western world have been quite willing to use the leverage of the ballot
box to promote their exodus. Consequently, except in those instances where
their frustration explodes in spontaneous public demonstrations, their
grievances remain most often articulated by concerned (indigenous) citizens in
the host countries, \vho speak for what is distinctly
a minority viewpoint in their states. And, where leaders have emerged from
within to articulate issues on their behalf, their demands have been
essentially defensive-that they not be deported, dispossessed, or flagrantly
discriminated against.
Most fundamentally, ethnoclass minorities frequently suffer from a
perceived" otherness" that, at least in older states, ethnoterritorialminorities do not. A citizen of Glasgow can
appear as both a Scot and British to the man in the street in Leeds; a Muslim
in France is a Muslim in France. Hence, the amelioration of ethnoclass
conflict requires double-sided adaptation. Not only must there be a willingness
on the part of the besieged minority to adapt to their minority condition (and
in some instances that will is lacking) but the host population must often
adapt to their own cultural shock in dealing with "foreigners" and
reorganize their attitudes toward that minority, often a generation-consuming tasJs. The durability of racist attitudes toward African
Americans and Native Americans in large portions of the United States offers a
case in point. So too do the continuing negative attitudes toward Europe's
Romany, especially in Central Europe, where Andrej Skolkay
recently found 65 percent of the Slovaks opposed to having a Romany neighbor,
and a hard core, self-declared intolerant element of between 15-25 percent of
the population in both contemporary Slovenia and Slovakia likely to engage in
hate speech and public action against "dark" foreigners.
As for those rare
instances where ethnic identity, class, and territoriality converge, virtually
every conceivable category of participants and means of conveying demands can
frequently be found. Of particular note, though, are two categories of active participants
that are found far more frequently in this arena of ethnopolitics than others:
terrorist groups and the systemwide governments. In Northern Ireland, for
example, both the Protestants and Catholics have had terrorist organizations
committed to their respective cause. In some instances, their die-hard members
continue to operate. As in the case of the Ku Klux Klan in the United States,
the presence of such extremist, extra-constitutional, paramilitary
organizations tends to interject an erratic and uncontrollable element into the
policy process. It was, in part, in reaction to the terrorists that the British
government had to become an active, direct participant in Ulster politics in
its effort to manage the communal conflict there, much as the United States
government eventually had to challenge the "states' rights" position
of the southern states in its federal system in order to end racial segregation
in America a century after its civil war ended.
There are two
particular areas involving policy responses to ethnopolitical demands where our
study suggests the need for further research: Who receives the demands? And,
potential patterns of response to them? We will thus limit our observations
here to a few brief reflections on the comparative role of governmental actors
in this area, and-more broadly-to some of the problems related to studying
policy responses.
In the case of
ethnoterritorial conflict, the central government and the system-wide political
parties are almost invariably the recipients of demands. This is especially
true, as would be expected, in unitary political systems, but also holds for
federalized countries such as the United States and Canada, though in these
instances the state/provincial/ cantonal level is often as involved in the
policy process as the central government. A similar pattern emerges when one
considers ethnoclass conflicts over immigrants and
foreign nationals; however, a broader range of demand-recipients appear to be
also involved in these issues. Conflicts over the rights of immigrants, for
example, frequently involve the legal system, unions, or employers more than
high-level governmental institutions or system-wide political parties, except
where the latter choose to co-opt the "foreigner" issue.
How the recipients of
the demands respond is a more difficult matter to summarize. With regard to
ethnoterritorial conflicts, a diverse set of policy responses have been
utilized in Western societies. These, however, can be grouped into two broad
(and largely self-evident) categories. Recipients of demands have either tried
to accommodate the demands of ethnoterritorial spokesmen by granting at least
some concessions or they have responded with hostility to such demands. On
balance, the states in the advanced democratic world and postcommunist
Central Europe have generally gravitated towards the pragmatic position that
accommodation is preferable to conflict. Indeed, the only form of institutional
accommodation that was long rejected by system-wide leaders in most Western
states involved proposals to federalize fully their polity, federalism being
initially equated with separatism by system-wide elites. Even here exceptions
abound, beginning in the mid-1970s when post-Franco Spain accepted federalism
for its Basque and Catalonian provinces as a necessary step toward
democratization and continuing in the volatile climate of democratic politics
in postcommunist Europe when the Czechs and Slovaks
moved beyond federalization and split their country.
In part, the nature
of the response has reflected the degree of mobilization exemplified by the
ethnopolitical group and the economic or political importance of their region
as much as the specific demands being conveyed. Those regions with the greatest
mobilization and of greater importance have, predictably, received the most
accommodative responses in advanced democratic systems.
Partisan
considerations also weigh heavily in explaining ethnoterritorial policy in the
democratic world. The importance of the Welsh and Scottish seats in Parliament
to the Labour Party's ability to remain competitive
with the Tories in British elections, and of Quebec's vote to the ability of
Canada's Liberal Party to govern in Ottawa have thus led these parties to
endorse, respectively, assemblies for Scotland and Wales and greater federal
autonomy for Quebec.
Plus there is, the economically
measurable value of a region to the center and/or its psychological importance
can become a powerful consideration in weighing options when faced with
separatist demands and the prospects of civil war. The large Serbian minorities
in Croatia and Bosnia versus their very small number in Slovenia and Macedonia
goes far in explaining the different levels of military commitment that
Belgrade made between 1991 and 1995 to retain these diverse parts of the former
Yugoslavia, just as Kosovo's status as the cradle of the Serbian nation
continues to explain Belgrade's unwillingness to part with that now almost
entirely Albanian-speaking and Muslim province. Quite apart from any general
commitment to the concept of unity, the discovery of oil in eastern Nigeria
made Biafi-a's secession unthinkable in the late
1960s. Conversely, Slovakia's need for investment capital ma.de it easier for
Czechoslovakia's Czech leadership to contemplate the partition of their country
in 1991-92. The choices that have been made have varied, but circumstances have
generally made those choices decisive ones even when they have proven to be
wrong, as in the case of Belgrade's 1991-95 efforts to hold onto Bosnia and
Croatia and 1999 resistance to international intervention in Kosovo.
The issues generated
by the presence of large numbers of foreign workers and immigrants in the
advanced democratic world have, comparatively, been approached with greater
ambivalence by political leaders. As we have seen, the flow of foreign workers
into Europe, and to a lesser degree of citizens from the "coloured commonwealth," in Britain, was initially
greeted with a policy of "studied neglect," justified in the case of
the foreign workers by the rationale that they were only temporary additions to
the domestic work force. As the permanency and number of foreigners became
issues in their own right, governments found it increasingly difficult to
retain a policy of passive neutrality.
As in most cases of
politics, context was a major factor affecting policy response even in the
pre-9/11 world. It was easier to use restrictive measures where the foreign
presence was concentrated in foreign workers on work visas than immigrants who
entered Britain as Commonwealth citizens or-for that matter-against the illegal
immigrants from Mexico in the United States, given the generally delicate
nature of U. S.-Mexican relations. With the rise of electorally successful
anti-immigrant parties, the balance shifted in the 1990s with anti-immigrant
rhetoric streaming from the mouths of the leaders of established parties as
well as from the Le Pens. It is too early to speculate on the effects that the
current instances of terrorism in Europe will have on policy toward Europe's
"foreign" communities; however, a further tightening of oversight is
already discernible.
Context has also
significantly affected ethnoclass politics in the postcommunist and developing worlds, again with the
"foreign" element being the target of the political process rather
than the instigator of political demands despite the limited, outsider
protection that the Romany enjoyed as long as the governments of postcommunist Europe were courting NATO and the EU for
membership. Under less scrutiny, and sometimes belligerently selfassertive of their independence, developing world
states have addressed the "foreigner" issue with even less
ambivalence.
As to the
pivotal role of governmental institutions reacting to ethnopolitical demands,
even within democratic systems it differs depending upon the nature of the
conflict. In the area of ethnoterritorial politics, governments most often find
themselves in the position of responder to the demands. In the area of ethnoclass politics, however, as the focus of various types
of demands from a variety of sources, governments will more often see their
role as that of a mediator or broker of competing interests. Hence the
occasional schizophrenic appearance of policies involving immigrants, foreign
workers, and refugees where the government concurrently pursues policies
designed to assure foreign nationals, immigrants, and sometimes international
overseers of their civil rights, while simultaneously seeking to placate
domestic opinion by halting the inflow of additional foreigners and even
encouraging those present to return to their home countries. Yet, even where
the government adopts a clear and decisive policy in response to ethnopolitical
issues, there is inevitably a problem of measuring its
"responsiveness" to the matter at hand. What may seem speedy progress
to a majority community making concessions to what it perceives to be a noisy
minority may seem indecently long to those who have been historically
discriminated against or reside at the bottom of a society's socioeconomic
ladder. Alternately, if the decision is to do nothing, considerable time may
pass before the conveyers of the demands realize it.
Thus, the two most
basic aspects of ethnopolitics likely to be affected by policy developments are
(1) the nature of ethnopolitical movements and their mode of operation, and (2)
the nature of subsequent ethnopolitical demands. The emphasis on these areas
underscores our operating presumption throughout this study: that ethnic-laden
issues normally defy permanent settlement. This does not mean that ethnic
issues are by definition nonbargainable; in fact, most of our studies
underscore the high degree of bargainability
characterizing ethnopolitical issues. Moreover, political elites seem to have
considerable latitude in terms of policy implementation, especially as long as
the majority of the public remains unmobilized. But
political settlements are almost never permanent. Even the partition of
Czechoslovakia did not end tension between the derivative governments, although
it did downgrade the issues from concern with the forn1 of the state to such
matters as the disposal of public properties and the access of Czechs and
Slovaks to universities in the resultant states. Generally, ethnopolitical
decisions are always subject to changing social, economic, and international
conditions; consequently, they are subject to renegotiation. It is only when
the contrary presumption is adopted, that the current political status quo is
the proper base for comparison, that these issues become no longer susceptible
to political bargaining.
In the area of
ethnoterritorial conflict, the impact of policy responses has taken several
directions. Generally, though, the key variable in determining the mode to be
used for articulating demands has been the degree to which the existing regime
is willing to entertain and, at least in part, respond to them. Thus, in
Britain, where political leaders were willing to negotiate most of the last
quarter century, the principal means selected to express ethnoterritorial
demands have been system-participatory, primarily ethnoterritorial parties.
Conversely, where the relevant political leadership seemed to be insensitive to
ethnoterritorial demands or repudiated their legitimacy, ethnopolitical
organizations tended to develop as clandestine, system-challenging actors. The
specific level of political violence employed, in turn, has tended to correlate
in the advanced democratic world with (a) the degree of insensitivity exhibited
by the established leadership, (b) the number of overlapping cleavages
encapsulated in the political conflict between ethnic groups within the same
region, and between the ethnoterritorial actors and the central authorities,
and conversely (c) the degree to which the members of these ethnoterritorial
communities share cross-cutting ties and interests with the other members of
the broader political community.
The impact of policy
responses to ethnoterritorial demands also affect seven generates-subsequent
demands for additional action. Responses involving institutional accommodation
are likely to create a basis for new demands for further administrative or decision-making
autonomy. Even primarily symbolic gestures may increase expectations and
desires, and a seemingly favorable reception to ethnoterritorial demands
followed by little substantive action may increase the ante the next time
around. Alternately, it might deflect ethnoterritorial pressure for a
substantial period of time. The introduction of violence into the conflict,
however, essentially complicates the situation, because the violence itself
becomes a focal point for demands and responses. That, in turn, tends to steer
governmental responses away from the avowedly more basic issues of the
conflict, and invariably diminishes a government's inclination toward
accommodation.
What seems to be most
important vis-a-vis the nature of subsequent ethnoterritorial demands is the
ability and willingness of elites from each perspective to reach mutually
agreeable rules of the game or patterns of interaction. This need not result in
a full-blown consociational resolution; in fact, as
our case studies suggest, that option is usually time-limited because
collaborative ethnonationalists are highly vulnerable to being outbid by more
militant spokesmen for their communities. Still, it can be something akin to consociational politics-a bargaining process based on
mutually accepted principles of cooperation.
As for ethnoclass conflict, the impact of public policies there
appears to depend on whether the conditions affecting the lives of the
"outsiders" (including those holding citizenship) or their presence
in the host country is the central question. Policy responses regarding the
former do not appear to have had a major impact on those raising such issues,
perhaps because these issues have been too diffuse in character to be satisfied
by specific governmental policies. However, policy responses involving the latter
have had an impact on subsequent demands, and equally importantly, the morale
of the targeted communities. Most commonly, as minority demands have increased
in scope, public support for the parties opposed to their presence has grown.
Yet the civil rights protection they have received has never fully satisfied
the concerns of these communities, largely because believing in that protection
has required them to trust in the long-term goodwill of a host population that
in large rneasure continues to support anti-immigrant
and anti-Romany laws. In a worse-case scenario, the ambivalent policies aimed
at protecting "outsiders" may have gradually hardened the frustration
of many of these communities by awakening expectations that have been grievously
disappointed.
Further, the policy
responses when the foreigners themselves are the issue do not appear to have
had much of an impact on the nature of the antiforeigner, anti-Romany,
movements actively promoting this perspective in advanced democratic and postcommunist states. At most, such policies as those
suspending further immigration have modestly deflected the potential growth of
these organizations. The most important variables involving polices in this
area, however, remain not the presence of the antiforeigner parties but the
dynamic nature of the economic and political conditions in which the policy
processes function. To date these have consistently kept the
"foreigner" issue salient, if not ever more significant in the
political systems of the developed world.
Ethnoclass minorities are still more the target of political
action than the originators of proposals designed to improve their status;
territorialized minorities in the advanced democratic world, the democratizing postcommunist world, and developing world are still the
primary spokesman for their own cause. The tools of management still stress
accommodation in the economically developed states of North America, Western
Europe, and postcommunist Central Europe, although in
the realm of ethnoclass politics the groups whose
demands are to be accommodated are more often the domestic majorities rather
than the minority communities. Meanwhile, repression remains the major tool of
control in the developing world, particularly with respect to dissatisfied
minorities with a territorial base seeking greater control over their own
affairs.
That stated, the face
of ethnic conflict in today's world has altered considerably from what it
presented half a century ago or even a generation ago. During the 1950s, the
most visible manifestation of ethnoclass politics in
the developed world was the quest by black Americans for equality in American
society, and their struggle to end segregation was gradually being achieved,
albeit still primarily in courtrooms rather than the halls of Congress. As for
the ideal of "national self-determination," prior to decolonization
when the idea of nation-building was first gaining currency-discourses
involving self-determination were generally restricted to either the right of
the "captive peoples" of Eastern Europe to throw off the communist
regimes imposed on them by Soviet occupation or the right of European colonies
to gain independence, not the right of the territorialized minorities in the
colonial possessions to Balkanize Asia and Africa into hundreds of economically
nonviable but more or less ethnically homogenous states.
By the 1970s, the
issue of self-determination had been commandeered by Western Europe's
regionalized minorities, as well as dissatisfied territorialized minorities in
developing countries; however, for the most part, the demands of those groups
seemed tractable. Sri Lanka's Tanlll minority was
still seeking Spain, Ulster, and Sri Lanka and of unsettled if nonviolent
conflicts such as that between Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the future of
their island has gradually altered the conflict-management processes involving
ethnic conflict. Whereas formerly states saw ethnic conflict in internal terms
and sought to respond to it inside their borders, their constitutional system,
and alone-France and Spain, for example, each dealt individually with their
Basque communities-conflict-management options now include a growing number of
extra-systemic approaches toward ethnopolitical issues.
A considerable number
of "options" can be grouped under the "extra-systemic"
rubric. Some involve decisions voluntarily reached by the parties to the
dispute to resolve or manage it in a controlled if sometimes unconventional
manner. The decision to split Czechoslovakia into two states is perhaps the
most conspicuous example of this approach, but so too are the Indian Sri Lankan
Accord and the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, both of which
involved bringing outsiders into the conflict-management process. Also falling
into this loose category would be the willingness, at least prior to 9/11, of
several European states to "upload" decisions involving the rights of
non-EU citizens in EU member states to the decision-making bodies of the EU.
These devices can be of an imposed nature, however: for example, when outside
force is used to restore order where governments have been unable either to
accommodate or repress successfully the demands of militant ethnopolitical
communities and disputes are escalating toward civil warfare.
The most
extra-systemic devices as well as the fastest growing area of extra-systemic
conflict management are those involving the injection of outside actors into
ethnic conflicts via peacemaking and peace-enforcing military activity,
peacekeeping action, postconflict
institution-building, and sometimes the prosecution of war criminals. Indeed,
it was the severity of ethnic conflict in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia that
prompted the reevaluation of the provision in Article II (7) of the UN Charter,
which formally prohibited the UN from intervening in matters falling
"essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state." Civil
wars were once routinely viewed as falling under this provision, and
peacekeeping forces had to be approved by a member state before they could be
deployed on its soil. Now, international law permits action where refugee flows
into neighboring states render civil wars international, as we]] as where
internationally defined war crimes are taking place.3 As for the deployment of
peacekeeping forces in areas of communal unrest, although the practice is not
recent-the UN entered the fray in the Congo in 1960 and Cyprus four years
later, and British troops have been performing a peacekeeping mission in
Northern Ireland since the early 1970s-the pace at which the UN and others have
launched these operations sharply increased during the 1990s. In the first five
years of that decade, the UN alone undertook as many peacekeeping operations as
it had in its previous history. Moreover, unlike its previous peacekeeping
operations, most of which involved patrolling cease-fire zones between states,
the majority of these involved the particularly costly (in finances, lives, and
duration) area of communal peacekeeping.
Finally, among the
extra-systemic conflict-management devices involving outside parties, by far
the most ambitious undertakings are the postconflict
institution- and community-building operations in areas of continuing communal
conflict (e.g., the UN's position in post-civil war Bosnia and Rwanda). This
expansion of responsibilities beyond the peacekeeping activity of interposing
troops between opposing sides is understandable. In most of these areas,
communal warfare has destroyed the legitimacy of such preexisting institutions
for conflict control as the courts, police forces, and the military, if not the
institutions themselves. Moreover, while the reconstruction processes are
underway; these duties too customarily fall on the intervening parties, especially
where such delicate tasks must be performed as part of a peace settlement
agreement as the repatriation of refugees to their former homes in zones that
have been "ethnically cleansed." In two instances, Bosnia and Kosovo,
the UN has even undertaken tasks of political tutelage and exercises tight
control over the process of democratization, complete with the right to dismiss
duly elected officials.
To date, this
shifting nature of communal conflict management, especially in the area of
ethnoterritorial conflict, has encountered difficulties at two levels. First,
as in the case of India's peacekeeping venture in Sri Lanka, it has often been
difficult to keep the peacemakers out of the conflict. Second, the models
available for use in these extra-systemic approaches to conflict management
have been essentially the same (usually authority-centered or regime-centered)
devices, which have often accommodated ethnic demands in advanced Western
democracies but whose track record is weak beyond that world.
Under any
circumstances, peacekeeping operations in areas on the verge of, in the midst
of, or just emerging from communal warfare is politically sensitive and
extraordinarily difficult. Even if the intervening party enters the fray in a
neutral capacity-and much intervention has been done under the guise of
peacekeeping by actors with personal agendas in the outcome of the dispute-the
challenge is onerous and gratitude hard to find and usually fleeting when
found.
The problem begins
with the multiple tasks confronting the individual peacekeeper. Neither police
nor soldiers, peacekeepers perform roles that simultaneously require them to
have automatic weapons on their shoulder to transmit a sense of security to the
world around them, the personal tact necessary to negotiate street quarrels
between members of formerly warring communities, and a tool belt at the waist
should a child's bicycle require repairs. Unfortunately, as the need for
peacekeepers and the danger of peacekeeping operations have grown, the number
trained for this specialized task has dwindled.
The most serious
problem confronting peacekeeping units nonetheless remains retaining the aura
of neutrality necessary to function in the heated environment of communal
conflict. Their missions are invariably structured in terms of implementing
and/ or preserving some form of status quo. It may be an imposed or negotiated
cease-fire line, as in Croatia, or an agreement like the one the Indian
Peacekeeping Force operated under in Sri Lanka, or a curfew law like the one
British troops enforced in Ulster. The problem is the same. In communal
conflicts, the issue is the legitimacy of the status quo itself, however it may
be defined. Enforcing cease-fire lines established while one paramilitary was
in retreat, or international agreements that require the resettlen,ent
of the displaced to their homes in ethnically cleansed areas have the effect if
not the intent of identifying the peacekeepers with "the other side"
in the minds of at least some of the people.
Where peace has been
imposed by outside forces, the peacekeepers may lose their image of neutrality
before they are even on the disputed territory. Hence, the leverage of
international mediators brokering intercommunal conflict is usually at its peak
before the peacekeepers are deployed and when their violence-ending presence is
most likely to be interpreted as beneficial by all parties.
Plus, both as a tool
of preventive diplomacy designed to prevent conflicts from spreading or
rekindling, and as a part of postconflict rebuilding
processes, peacekeeping forces have become essential components of recent
extra-systemic approaches to managing communal conflict. Only in the atmosphere
of security that they provide can individual rights be secured and institutions
of governance and justice capable of acquiring legitimacy be constructed. The
rebuilding process, however, can also become too heavily dependent upon them.
Those returning to ethnic minority enclaves in areas of Bosnia and Kosovo, in
particular, have tended to become psychologically dependent on their presence-a
recent trend in refugee returns that is likely to extend the stay of peacekeeping
missions which in general tend to be openended in
areas of communal violence.
In these
institution-building arenas, the removal of peacekeepers is usually linked to
the emergence of institutions of not just democratic government, but
constitutional government, in which the rights of minorities are protected. In
fact, there is no instance in our case studies or beyond in which peacekeeping
forces have been withdrawn from areas of communal conflict where the conflict
has not flared up again or, as in the case of the removal of the IPKF from Sri
Lanka, intensified. Yet, there are no tested models available to today's
community-builders, even when backed by a coercive military presence.
Consequently they have turned to the models of constitutional government and
procedural arrangements of the developed world for their principal designs. To
date, however, the ideal of national self-determination has traveled into these
areas well ahead of the environmental conditions in which constitutional
government gradually developed in the advanced democratic world. To the
contrary, cross-cutting ties have been historically weak and unemployment very
high (in the 50 percent range and above) in Bosnia, Kosovo, and other postconflict settings, feeding both local insecurities and
ethnonational parties, just as the high rate of unemployment and
underemployment in France during the 1980s fueled the growth of Le Pen's
antiimmigrant party. Furthermore, many of these areas do not have any history
of government based on the rule of law or tolerance of the views of others.
Even if models did
exist, state-building processes would still be plagued by many of the problems
that have beset them in the former Yugoslavia, occupied Iraq, Lebanon, and
elsewhere. Some of these revolve around the third party state-builders. As
Stanley Hoffman has observed, "preventive intervention by the United
Nations or a regional organization is a highly intrusive affair."8 It has
certainly been so in Bosnia, where international overseers of its
democratization process have closed radio stations for inflammatory nationalist
broadcasts and nullified the elections of ultranationalist candidates deemed
unlikely to participate constructively in the country's evolving political
institutions. In the short teml, such intrusiveness
generates its own resentment and opposition to international tutelage, even
when the international community is providing the promised resource assistance,
and often, as has been conspicuously true in Kosovo, it does not. In fact, given
the costliness of postconflict peacekeeping and
institution-building operations, the see-through commitment of the
international community, and the potentially conflicting personal agendas of
its major actors are also at issue. Loss of military personnel prompted the
United States to drop out of peacekeeping missions in both Lebanon and Somalia
between 1982 and 1992 and, as we have seen, both NATO and the EU ultimately
placed their desire to expand into postcommunist
Europe ahead of their commitment to improve the status of the Romany in postcommunist Europe.
Perhaps the most
serious obstacles to postconflict reconstruction are
the communities and conflicts themselves. Moving beyond the traumatic memories
of violent ethnic conflict requires generations, developing the trust across
communal lines that is necessary for durable constitutional government will require
at least as long. Some conflicts are so entrenched and zero-sum in nature that
they are beyond outsider-or inside-management: for example, the conflict in
Chechnya, where grievances have reached the point on both sides where
pern1anent warfare and/or secession may seem to be the only alternatives. In
still other instances, circumstances may defy existing models for conflict
resolution. Territorial autonomy in exchange for refugee return, for example, will
be unacceptable where a separatist minority has achieved majority status in its
region only by driving out large numbers of the former majority community, as
has occurred in parts of Georgia.
Finally, there are
the limitations inherent in the institutional arrangements available to those
constructing constitutional governments in postcommunal
conflict arenas. Military forces have-in their own right-proven to be useful
but limited components of peace-building processes beyond providing a shield
around endangered minorities. Military occupation can be valuable in assisting
the short-term transition to civilian rule as an instrument for quickly
implementing reforms and overcoming entrenched opposition.9 In building
institutions for the long haul, however, reformers have generally relied on the
three macro-level approaches to organizing government authority that have been
most frequently utilized to manage ethnic conflict in the advanced democratic
world: (a) ethnically inclusive modes of allocating political offices; (b) consociational-like arrangements, typically involving
power-sharing constitutional designs and parties organized on a crosscommunal basis; and (c) federal-like distribution of
power systems where ethnic divisions are territorialized.
All of these
arrangements have utility, but as we have seen each also has its limitations or
costs. Power-sharing, ethnic-based allocation of offices, and variations on consociational forms of managing societal cleavages require
an enduring goodwill on the part of those making the bargain. Ultimately, all
can be undone by outsiders mobilizing ethnic cleavages and/ or outbidding the
ruling cartels in appealing to their ethnopolitical communities. Consociational schemes, in particularly, are inherently
weak means of managing ethnic conflict in the midst of democratization
processes where systemwide parties are not already established and a
mobilization of voters along ethnic lines is, as in Slovakia, almost
inevitable. Once that occurs. because ethnonational and ethnoclass
parties alike derive their strength by exploiting the ethnic divisions in their
countries, consociational systems have very
diminished chances of survival. Indeed, the collapse of that system in Belgium,
once its ethnoterritorial division became politicized in the late 1950s,
suggests the vulnerability of these arrangements even where system-wide parties
have long existed.
At the same time, arrangements
territorializing decision-making authority like those that Belgium implemented
during the 1970s offer only a limited, long-term potential for managing
ethnoterritorial cleavages. The utility of devolution, regionalization, and
federal formulae in accommodating ethnoterritorial demands has been noted
throughout our studies. They have proven useful in a variety of settings where
the demands are focused on reshaping the regime in a federal direction. There
are, however, both short- and potentially long-term costs in adopting this
approach even where the territorialized communities are not ethnically diverse.
Federalism provides an institutional base for territorialized centrifugal
forces; it does not neutralize them. The system was "invented" in the
United States not by ethnically distinct colonies who had recently fought
against one another, but by a set of colonies largely in the hands of
ethnically similar, English-speaking elites who had collaborated with one
another a few years previously against a common enemy. Yet, within its
framework different economic systems and philosophies about the ownership of
human beings were perpetuated until they were finally resolved by a civilwar. Where the units are ethnically and perhaps
linguistically diverse, as in Canada, even if their respective communities lack
a recent history of animosity, ethnoterritorial objectives can reach a
separatist level.
Especially in the
fragile and volatile climate of politics in the aftermath of communal conflict
and in the developing world, federalism is best viewed as not so much a mode of
conflict resolution or even conflict management as a means of buying time. Peacekeeping
forces, consociational arrangements where possible,
and ethnic balancing acts also function as essentially time purchasing,
manipulative devices vis-a-vis ethnoterritorial movements in such environments,
just as advisory Muslim councils do with respect to the ethnoclass
demands of those communities in Britain and France. For territorialized
communities desiring control over their own affairs, however, federalesque modes of accommodation are the ones most
likely to be successfully negotiated in a postconflict,
institution-building process. But, in the long term, unless other forces are
actively set in motion to build cross-cutting cleavages and to facilitate the
development of non- or crosscommunal parties and a
sense of shared identity among the members of a political system, the prognosis
is not good. Thus, in most instances the process of conflict management only
begins when federalism is adopted or forced upon the conflicting parties.
Further manipulations designed to purchase additional time are almost
inevitable, reflected in Nigeria and India's case in the steady growth in the
number of, respectively, tribal and linguistically organized states in those
federations. For long-term stability, that time must be used profitably, as
India appears to have done in fashioning a middle class that transcends the
borders of its linguistically drawn states.
In brief,
contemporary institution- and community-building, like the management of ethnic
conflict in general, is a work in progress, and necessarily so. Just as
ethnicity itself is a fluid concept with a proven ability to survive as an
important basis of identity and political activity in a changing world, so the
search for means of managing the conflict is an evolving undertaking. As
ethnoterritorial and ethnoclass conflicts
increasingly partake of a greater-indeed, international-dimension unknown in
Aesop's time, it is a sign of our age that the struggle to manage these
conflicts in modern political systems is becoming as extra-systemic as the
conflicts themselves.
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