What few people in
Europe and the USA seem to be aware of are the actual future war projections by
Islamists and Jihadists, see map underneath. A first question to ask here then
is of course also, what will be their future alliances?
In fact one can see
hints of possible future alliances forming among the Islamists/ jihadists by
looking at the complex alliances of the past. After most of the Arab Middle
East fell under European rule as a result of the Ottoman collapse, the Islamic
fundamentalist movement began to look worldwide to find potential allies
against the Franco-British occupation. The Muslim Brotherhood, the Wahabis, and
even the Pan Arab nationalists viewed the rise of radical nationalism in Europe
as a historic opportunity. The convergence between the two currents across the
Mediterranean, although ultimately fruitless, had grounds in pure geopolitics.
From various quarters of the region, including Cairo, Jerusalem, and Baghdad,
leading figures of the transnational Salafi movement opted for a rapprochement
with the emerging Nazi and fascist regimes in Berlin and Rome. The jihadi
movement operated through the ancient geopolitical logic that the enemy of
one's enemy could be a potential ally. Thus arose the Islamist-Jihadic-Nazi-fascist
axis.
Ideologically, the
equation had no philosophical pillars. The National Socialists of Germany
promoted German racial superiority. Arabs and other Mideastern Semites were at
the bottom of the ladder, lower even than the Slavs and Turks. The racist
ideology of nazism was thus inherently incompatible
and could not be adopted by the Islamic fundamentalists because of their own
ethnicities. In a global society ruled by the Third Reich, by "Aryan
standards" Arab Muslims would be one level above the Jews. In Nazi thinking,
a universal Germanic empire would not be co ruled with southern Mediterranean
"races" who were considered inferior, and a longterm
joint venture between Hitler and potential allies in the Arab world was
impossible.
For the Italian
fascists, with their idea of the Roman "Mare nostra," the
Mediterranean could accommodate neither Arab nationalism nor Islamic fun damentalism. On the Arab Islamic end, cooperation also was
not possible, for the simple reason that the agenda of the jihadic
forces called for the removal of all infidel presence from Arab and Muslim
lands. Mussolini had been engaged in the opposite activity, having invaded
Ethiopia and dreamed of a new Italian empire. Italians would have had to
evacuate Libya and the Germans (if successful) would have to surrender British
and French colonies and mandates back to a caliphate. Further down the
doctrinal and geopolitical road, the supporters of the Islamic conquest-or el Fatah-were dedicated to resuming it beyond the borders
of the old Ottoman empire. Thus, after the Axis victory over the Allies,
another round of jihad would take place against the German Nazis and the
Italian fascists. An ultimate confrontation along the lines of the clash of
civilizations, regardless of who was on the other side, was ineluctable. The
logic ofjihad is not flexible, but can absorb a time
factor. In sum, Salafi political thought throughout the late 1930s and at the
onset of World War II sought an alliance with the German-Italian kuffar against
the Franco-British kuffar, even though, on doctrinal grounds, a universal
project with Nazis and facsists was not possible. But
the calculation was rational, even within the Islamic fundamentalist ideology,
insofar as the ultimate goal for the jihadists was to reemerge as a force
capable of restoring the caliphate. What superseded in the jihadist agenda was
the return of the global institution inside the Muslim lands. Reestablishing
the caliphate was equated with satisfYing Allah, and
therefore benefited from divine support. Striking deals with some kuffar
against other kuffar was in line with Salafi thinking; they often referred to
examples from the preceding founders and even from previous caliphs. According
to these references, in the early days of Islam, Prophet Mohammed had concluded
agreements with non-Muslims as a way to concentrate on other enemies (also
non-Muslims). Also, Abbasid Caliph Harun el Rashid
signed treaties with the "infidel" emperor Charlemagne to balance
power with the other "infidel" emperors of Constantinople. Islamic
history abounds with these examples, and the twentieth-century Salafis used all
of them to show theologicallegitimacy for their
strategic choices.
But in view of the
situation prevailing in the Middle East since the 1920s, the jihadic rationale in the 1930s was first and foremost
geopolitical. Hitler's and Mussolini's armies were the rivals of French and
British powers. Most Muslim lands were occupied by the latter colonial powers.
The resources of industrial Germany and agricultural Italy were being massed
against the interests of the Allies, and therefore were beneficial for jihad
and fatah. The Ottoman Empire adopted a similar
strategy at the beginning of the century. Istanbul perceived Britain, France,
and Russia as its greater threats; hence the Turks sided with Berlin and Vienna
against London and Paris, forming the Central Powers alliance. Although the
move was clearly based on geopolitical equations, it was perceived by the
post-Ottoman Islamic fundamentalists as a deliberate choice by the ruler ofIslam-the sultan-to use the forces of two kuffar powers
against even more threatening infidel powers. But after the abolition of the
caliphate and the sultanate in 1923 at the hands of Kemal Mustafa Ataturk, the
central decision-making authority in the Muslim world vanished. The Wahabis and
Muslim Brotherhood took it upon themselves to embody the international decisions
of the caliphate. They felt, like all Salafis, that the jihadic
strategic decisions were to be decided and developed by them until the return
of the khilafa (succession). Hence, as the collision
between the Berlin-Rome axis with the London-Paris axis was projected,
Islamists (but also many Pan Arabists) saw the strategic convergence of
interest (Taqatuh al Masalih).
Germany had developed enough military power to confront France and England in
Europe, potentially weakening them in the Middle East and North Africa. At the
same time, fascist Italy would disrupt British and French maritime power in the
Mediterranean. Although all these considerations favored siding with the Axis
against the Allies, perhaps the most inflammatory argument in favor of an
alliance with the Nazis was the Jewish question.
The Jewish question
in the Salafi doctrine is threefold: theological, historical, and
geopolitical. It is obviously a major feature of the current jihadist-J ewish conflict (to be discussed in due course), but
already in the 1930s both Arab nationalists and Islamic fundamentalists had
perceived the growth of Jewish settlement in British-mandated Palestine as a
"dagger planted in the midst of the umma (nation)." Arabs in
Palestine had launched an insurrection against British rule and aimed at
uprooting the developing Yishuv (the term for the localJewish
community prior to 1947). The Salafi-jihadic movement
intended to reverse the process of infidel settlement on that very strategic
area of Muslim land known to the West as the Holy Land. Their vision of events
in Palestine was as follows: The British invaded the Arab Middle East,
including Palestine, in 1919. The Jews had concluded a treaty with the British
in 1917, embodied in the Balfour declaration. British infidels had since
allowed Jewish infidels to immigrate onto the Muslim land of Palestine. Hence,
by the same logic, the growth of the Jewish community in that area was not the
result of natural demography under Muslim sovereignty but a consequence of a
strategy designed jointly by two kuffar powers: the British and the Jews. The
conclusion to this jihadic logic was simple:
The Islamic
fundamentalists had to shop for an ally with an ideology that sought to destroy
the Jewish community universally and that had enough military strength and
intent to clash with the other infidel power protecting the Jewish entity in
Palestine. In the 1930s, such an ally was not difficult to identify: Nazi
Germany. Thus, the jihadist solution to the mounting threat of Zionism in
Palestine was to develop an alliance across the Mediterranean with Hitler's
regime. A Nazi higher technology that would confront Jewish technological
superiority and its British protection in Palestine, coupled with the Nazi's
intention to destroy Jewish communities wherever they encountered them and
their imminent confrontation with and likely defeat of the British empire, made
the Nazi option too attractive in realistic political terms to be analyzed in
strictly theological terms (under which, of course, it would have to be
rejected). While Nazi infidels were ultimately anathema to jihadists, the
alliance answered all their practical needs at the moment.
By the end of the
1930s, Islamic fundamentalist networks, often under the auspices of traditional
leadership and sometimes within the wider context of radical Arab nationalists,
sought rapprochement and alliance with Berlin. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood
hoped a war with the Axis would bring in the German-Italian forces from Libya
across the border to seize the Suez Canal, ejecting the British from the
region. In Syria and Lebanon, fundamentalist leaders envisioned that a defeat
at the hands of the Germans would evacuate the French from the area. In
Palestine and Iraq, revolts were brewing, waiting to be triggered by the
advance of Nazi forces across Europe.
As the Wehrmacht
marched into Czechoslovakia and Poland, and as the Luftwaffe bombarded the
British Isles after the invasion of France, the Islamic fundamentalist and Pan
Arabist movements of the Middle East rose up at different times, in different
areas, and in different circumstances. In Cairo, according to Anwar Sadat's
memoirs, the Muslim Brotherhood and a number of officers in the military were
preparing to revolt had Bernard Montgomery's 8th Army not been able to stop
Erwin Rommel's Afrika Korps. The plan was to inflame Egypt from the inside and
explode an intifada along the valley of the Nile all the way to Ethiopia. In
Palestine, the clearest pro-Nazi move was embodied by the mufti of Jerusalem,
al Husseini.
Descending from a
prominent Qudsi (Jerusalemite) family, which claimed its own descent from the
Prophet, the Husseini were the most visible leaders of the city and of tlle Arab population. But the religious cleric H'!ij Ali al Amin al Husseini jumped from anti-British
colonialism to radical anti-Semitism, becoming Hitler's closest ally in the
Arab-Muslim world. Traveling to Berlin, Mufti Husseini met with the Fuhrer,
established an alliance, and projected himself not only as the Arab leader of
Palestine but as the Third Reich's leading Muslim ally. The Nazi strategists
wanted to see him play a role beyond Palestine; with a special program in
Arabic broadcasting on Radio Berlin, the pro-German cleric mobilized Muslims in
the Balkans against the Serbs and called on Muslim soldiers serving with the
Allies to desert or rise up. Husseini was the highest hope Berlin had for an
offensive south and east of the Mediterranean behind enemy lines.
In Iraq, Mohammed
Rashid al Kailani led a military uprising against British rule in 1941 centered
in what is today the Sunni triangle. In Syria and the Muslim areas of Leba~n, similar groups readied themselves for an eventual
German landing as Nazi forces reached the Greek island of Rhodes. Had the Axis
forces been successful at El Alamein, jihadic
insurgencies would have met up with them in Egypt, Palestine, Syria, and Iraq.
But the British were fast on all fronts:
They eliminated
Kailani's militias in Iraq and invaded Lebanon and Syria with de Gaulle's
French forces to remove the Vichy France representatives. More important, they
destroyed Rommel's Panzers in the Egyptian desert and in 1942 went on the
offensive in Libya, rolling back the Axis and severing the strategic bridge
between Nazism and jihadism. The attempt to defeat the infidel allies using the
fascist infidels was over by 1943; with the fall of Berlin two years later, a
new era started and the forces ofjihad had to
consider new strategies.
World War II was a
major subject of contemplation for the Sunni Wahabi and Muslim Brotherhood and,
later, for the Shi'a Khumeinists. Throughout the
decades, jihadi intellectuals would rethink their strategies based on what
their contemporaries had witnessed and the accounts by historians. In the years
after September 11, 2001, bold extrapolations would be made public by Islamist
thinkers. On al Jazeera TV, leading Ikhwan scholar Sheikh Yussef al Qardawi often cited World War II as a "war to learn
from" and repetitively went over its imthula, or
lessons. Similar conclusions were found on the web, particularly on al Muhajirun, al Khilafa, and al
Ansar.
Al Qardawi spoke of the huge military machinery that
"consumed millions of humans and an incredible amount of material within
the world of kujJar." He drew the viewers'
attention to the fact that the infidels had destroyed each other's powers in an
incredible way in the twentieth century, particularly during World War II.
Asked about the wisdom of his predecessors-meaning the jihadic
forces of the 1930s and 1940s-having sided with the Axis, he argued that
Muslims should perform their wajib (duty) and Allah
would decide the case. The Islamists focused on the fact that the West may well
possess huge military power and resources, but Allah has his own way to destroy
it. Some Salafi analysts reminded their audience of the mere size of the
infidel global force at the eve of the war. 'Just imagine," said a cleric
in a chat room:
How gigantic was the
combination of all kufr powers in 1939. Just add the military strength of Great
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, America, let alone Japan. By our aqida (doctrine ) they are all Kuffar. Had they united
against Muslims in the 1940s, we wouldn't have had any chance. We were occupied,
divided, weak, uneducated, and deprived of military power. But Allah subhanahu [religious praise] unleashed them against each
other. They destroyed their military machines against each other in Europe,
Russia, and the Pacific. Every battle they fought was a battle where the
infidels were being destroyed, whatever was the winning side. That war [World
War IIJ was preparing the path for Jihad. It helped us weaken them, then
remove many of their armies from our midst. (Paltalk.com in the
"al-ansar" discussion room, September 23, 2004.)
The philosophical
conclusion is that jihadism does not have to fight all wars to defeat all
enemies. The injunction to the mujahidin is to sacrifice all they can,
including themselves when needed. Their contribution is part of a greater plan.
A Salafi commentator reminded his audience of the early stages of the latah:
"Remember when
our ancestors left Arabia in the first century [seventh A.D./e.E.]. The two superpowers of the time were the Persians
and the Byzantines. They have been at each other's throats for hundreds of
years.” (Paltalk.com in the "ansar al sunna wal Jihad" discussion room, January 20, 2005.)
When the Muslim
armies moved forward, he said the kuffars were weak
and exhausted. Islamists have explained World War II in Europe as a sign by
Allah, signaling the impending decline of the infidels after centuries of
military and economic rise. Before the war, most of the Muslim world was under
colonial infidel occupation. In the years after the war, one land after another
was freed from the British, French, Italians, Dutch, and Portuguese. Hundreds
of millions of Muslims obtained independence from foreign occupiers. This was
seen as stage one of a Muslim "reconquista"-first
of the traditional Muslim lands of the caliphate and later of the dar el harb.
By attempting to ally
themselves with the Nazis and fascists in midcentury, modern Islamists sent
this message: Their strategies for jihad and latah supercede
human rights, democracy, and peace. They were able to hold their noses and
countenance an alliance with the Nazis. To them, jihad and ultimately latah are
all there is in international relations. Their alliances with the
antidemocratic forces were not a "balancing act"; there simply was
not anything else on the other side of the scale. Many westerners still
believe that there is some sort of restraint on what the jihadists will do and
what their ambitions are. But theoretically there is no limit to the latah
until the dar el harb ceases to exist, and there are no limits on the
tactics to be used against the infidels.
The trigger of bin
Laden's war against America was-as he often charged-the deployment of American
forces on Muslim lands, and particularly in 1990 in Saudi Arabia, which he
labeled as holy land. Interestingly enough, the actual area forbidden to
non-Muslims is only the rectangle of the Hijaz area, covering Mecca and Medina.
Non-Muslims, including Americans and others, in fact have been present on the
peninsula for decades in great numbers. The British maintained forces in Oman
for ages. But in the Salafi vision of the world, the insult is more about
infidel forces crushing an Arab Muslim force: the Iraqi army. Salafi chats and
websites blamed both Saddam and the Saudis for allowing the Americans to crush
one of the largest and most powerful armed forces in the Arab world. This
ideological vision of international relations is at the root of the Salafi
anger that triggered attacks against the United States.6 Strangely enough, the
Wahabis, the state Salafists, have made the case for not engaging the Americans
as long as they are (or were) supporting Muslim causes, such as defending the
kingdom during the Gulf War and defeating the "Christian" Serbs in
the 1990s. On both accounts the radical Salafis responded that "America
is an infidel power that cannot be trusted." In the jihadi view, Americans
came to help the royal family against Saddam and control oil. And in Bosnia,
they allowed the Serbs to massacre the Muslims first, before they came to their
rescue. There was no argument to convince Osama and his men that America was
not the enemy. It was an ideological decision that transformed the ally of the
past on the plateau of Afghanistan into the next target.
In fact beginning in
1990, Salafi violence erupted in Algeria, Kashmir, Chechnya, Israel, and
elsewhere. In each of these battlefields, local conflicts were different:
political, ethnic,
religious. But, in addition, they were all fueled by one international brand
of ideology: Wahabism and Ikhwan doctrine. The Salafists moved inside these
conflicts and made them into Islamist instead of nationalist ones. For example,
Hezbollah in Lebanon asserted itself among Shiites (as opposed to Sunni
Salafis) and transformed the secular struggle against Israel into a fundamentalist
one. In a sense, these localjihads married the
nationalist conflicts but drove them in one global direction, jihadism,
connecting them to the mother ship of al Qaeda.
As local fires
erupted in several countries, the central force ofjihad,
particularly after the Khartoum gathering in 1992, targeted the United States
head-on, both overseas and at home. By this point al Qaeda was in charge of the
world conflict with America. The "princes" (or emirs) were assigned
the various battlefields, but the "Lord" assumed the task of
destroying the "greater Satan," America.
The first wave
started in 1993 on two axes: One was in Somalia, where jihadists met U.S.
Marines in Mogadishu in bloodshed. The United States withdrew. The same year,
the blind sheikh Abdul Rahman and Ramzi Yusuf conspired to blow up the Twin
Towers in New York. Washington sent in the FBI and treated it as a criminal
case, not as a war on terror. This was another form of withdrawal, and bin
Laden and his brigades got the message. The test was clear: The United States
will not fight the jihadists as a global threat. Something inside America was
"paralyzing" it from even consideringjihad
a threat.
Ironically, the first
ones to understand the message were the jihad terrorists. The events of 1993
were a benchmark in the decision that led to September 11 years later. Bin
Laden said later that the successful suicide attacks by Hezbollah against the
Marines in 1983 convinced him that the United States would not retaliate
against terror. The jihadists tested the United States twice ten years later,
and twice they found the path open.
In 1994, a bomb
destroyed a U.S. facility of Khubar in Saudi Arabia,
killing American military personnel. The "tower" was blown up by
jihadists, but the investigation was not able to determine which group. The
Saudis did not crack down on their radicals and the U.S. administration
absorbed the strike. This was a third test, well appreciated by the jihadists.
Meanwhile, three "wars" erupted worldwide with Salafists either
leading or participating. In Algeria, the fundamentalists have been involved in
tens of thousands of murders against secular, mostly Muslim civilians. The
Algerian regime was responding harshly too. But the United States and France
did not focus on Salafi ideology and organizations. This was a fourth test that
America and the West failed. In Chechnya, the Russians were fighting with the
separatists, whom the Wahabis infiltrated. Some among them would become part of
al Qaeda. Washington addressed veiled criticism to Moscow but kept silent on
the jihadist infiltration of the Chechens. This was the fifth test.
By the early 1990s,
the Bosnian conflict had exploded with its bloody ethnic cleansing. The United
States was first to call for intervention, while the Europeans hesitated.
Washington stood by the besieged Muslims against Serbs and Croats and mounted a
military expedition to help them maintain their government. The jihadists formed
a brigade and fought the Serbs fiercely, expending efforts to recruit elements
for a local jihad-and eventually ship them to other battlefields. Not only did
the United States tolerate the jihadists on the ground, but it even allowed
Wahabi fundraisers in America to support their networks in the Balkans; that
was the sixth test.
In 1996 the Taliban,
one of the most radical Islamist militias on Earth, took over in Kabul. The old
anti-Soviet Afghan allies were pushed all the way north to a precarious
position. The ideology of the Taliban did not seem to impress or worry the
foreign policy decision makers in Washington. The group's ruthless treatment
of women, minorities, and other religious groups went unchecked. Its hosting of
Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda was not dealt with. Worse, businessmen were
interested in contracts under the new "stable" regime, and some
American scholars were impressed with the Taliban's "achievements."
This was the seventh instance of American failure to take any significant stand
against the jihadists anywhere on any issue. It became almost certain that some
"power" inside the United States was moding
America's response and blurring its vision. That year, 1996, bin Laden issued
his first international fatwa against the infidels.
(http://www.defenddemocracy.org/research_topics/ research_topics_show.htm?doc_id=
18567 3 &attrib_id= 7 580.)
Encouraged by the
passivity of the U.S. executive branch toward the escalating jihadi assault
worldwide and against American targets and interests, the "central
computer" launched the second wave. This one was explicit, direct, and
daring, targeting the infidel's diplomatic and military hardware.
On February 22, 1998,
Osama bin Laden appeared on television for about twenty-seven minutes and
issued a full-fledged declaration of war against the kuf
far, America, the crusaders, and the Jews. The text was impeccable, with all
the needed religious references to validate a legitimate jihad. The declaration
was based on a fatwa signed by a number of Salafi clerics. (See The 9/11
Commission Report, op. cit.: "A Declaration of War," p. 47, and
"Building an Organization, Declaring War on the United States," p.
59.)
It was the most
comprehensive Sunni Islamist edict of total war with the United States, and it
was met with total dismissal by Washington. It evoked a few lines in the New
York Times, no significant analysis on National Public Radio, and no debating
on C-SPAN. The Middle East Studies Association had no panels on it, and the
leading experts who advised the government downplayed it. During the 9/11
Commission hearings, U.S. officials said they noted it and that plans were
designed to deal with it. As one commissioner asked, "This was a
declaration of war. Why did not the President or anyone declare war or take it
to Congress?"
Here was the leader
of international jihad serving the United States and the infidels with a formal
declaration of war grounded in ideological texts with religious references:
Why did no one answer him? "Expert advice" within the Beltway ruled
against it. Obviously, the Wahabis on the inside did not want to awaken the
sleepy nation. If the U.S. government were to question the basis of Osama's
jihad it would soon recognize the presence of an "internaljihad."
For this reason, the debate about the declaration had to be suppressed and with
it the warning about its upcoming threat. AI Qaeda must have been stunned. They
openly declare war on the infidels, and rather than responding, the Americans
are busy addressing political scandals instead. Osama must have thought:
"Well, that's what the Byzantines did, when the sultan got to their walls
centuries ago. They weren't mobilizing against the fatah,
they were busy arguing about the sex of angels. This must be another sign from
Allah that America is ripe. Let's hit them directly."
And indeed, in August
1998, Osama hit hard: two U.S. embassies, hundreds of victims, and massive
humiliation. The retaliation? A missile was launched on a pharmaceutical plant
in Sudan. Bin Laden had already left the country two years before. A wave of
tomahawk missiles dug up the dirt in Afghanistan. Right place, wrong policy.
Al Qaeda was indeed based in Afghanistan at the time, openly protected by the
Taliban. According to counterterrorism officials and military experts, a plan
was prepared to produce a regime change in Kabul. But again, the "holy
whisper" in the U.S. capital advised against intervention. "It will
create complications in international relations and will have a negative
impact in the Muslim world” Yet the following year, an all-out campaign by al
Qaeda destroyed the Serbian army in Kosovo and led to a regime change in
Serbia. There were no complications in international relations in that case.
The nonresponse of the United States after a declaration of war and a massive
attack against American diplomatic installations was not a mere signal anymore,
it was an invitation to attack America.
In 1999, a plot was
under way to blow up several targets worldwide. Reports circulated about an
earlier plot in 1995 to down several airliners. Intense jihadi activity was
going on; propaganda was spreading around the world. But in the United States,
the elite dismissed any accusation against the Islamists. Worse, the inside
jihadists had initiated a defamation campaign against the very few who were
trying to warn the public and government. America was driven to the
slaughterhouse, politically blindfolded, and intellectually drugged. The
fine-tuning between the outside ninjas and the inside cells was peaking. In
2000, al Qaeda crossed the line to test the U.S. military itself. A fishing
boat blew up, damaging the USS Cole in Yemen. Back in Afghanistan, bin Laden
analyzed the reactions. He did not have much work to do; there was no D.S.
reaction. The anti-American forces worldwide escalated their propaganda
campaign. One cycle led to another, as the jihadists were emboldened on all
battlefields. In Lebanon, Hezbollah overran the South Lebanon Army security
zone after the Israelis abandoned the area in May 2000. In September of that
year, Hamas and Islamic jihad escalated their suicide attacks. And as Americans
were embroiled in counting the Florida votes after the disputed 2000 election,
al Qaeda was scouting the East Coast of the United States. The path to
Manhattan and Washington was wide open.
Since 2001, world
leaders and international public opinion has concluded that the jihadists have
no international law and relations. The Salafi ideological teachings do not
recognize the United Nations, the principles of international law as we know
it, other treaties, conventions, and codes, unless under their doctrinal norms.
In contrast with the communists, who ideologically rejected the capitalist
world but nevertheless recognized international laws and treaties (even though
they often breached them), the jihadists simply do not recognize any system the
international community has reached since the Peace of Westphalia; no
conception of sovereignty, human rights, humanitarian rights, the Geneva
Convention, or even Red Cross agreements. This may seem hard to believe,
especially if you absorb the analysis of the apologists, particularly the Wahabi
lobbies. (See Robert Baer, Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our
Soul for Saudi Crude, 2003: "The Honeymoon," p. 91.)
But the easiest way
to learn about it is to read the jihadist literature, study their principles of
action, and listen to their spokespersons and activists. They all confirm with
clarity that the League of Nations, United Nations, Universal Declaration of
Human Rights, democracy, secularism, freedom of religions, freedom of speech
(when not applied in their interest) are to them all "products of the
infidels." Hence, there are no boundaries to jihadist actions. Therefore,
the understanding of their strategies and future plans cannot be predicted
based on expectations of the international community and accepted norms. With
this in mind, we can begin to understand the objectives of September 11 and the
shadow of future jihads.
Of course, the
jihadists, including bin Laden's al Qaeda and the myriad of other radical
Islamist warriors, have a system of reference for their actions. Their clerics
and "legislators" have an entire system oflaws
and regulations, including war codes and traditions (see the 6e pillar of Islam
described earlier in this article series). They, the Islamic fundamentalists,
claim it is the "true Islamic code"; Muslim reformers negate this
claim. This debate existed in the past, continues to exist, and will be much
wider in the future. But the bottom line is that the jihad terror networks
abide by their own vision of international relations: It is the web of
relationship between dar el
harb and dar el Islam. The latter must defeat the former; the rest is
details. But even in the details there are nuances, differences, and multiple subdoctrines. For example, a former member of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Sayid Qutb of Egypt, developed his own vision of warfare and jihad
against the infidels.4 He centered his doctrine almost entirely on constant
violence again the "enemies of religion" until they submit. He did
not spare Muslims of Shiite background or Sunnis of non-Salafi background. Qutb
may be one of the most radical fathers of modernjihadism,
a logical inspiration to al Qaeda, Zarqawi, and future extremists.
When mounting
operations in the 1990s, Osama bin Laden and his men had no limits with regard
to international relations and did not take world opinion into consideration.
In contrast, the state Wahabis were very concerned about al Qaeda's tactics,
fearing they would destroy the credibility of Islamic fundamentalism worldwide.
In the United States and to a certain degree in Europe and elsewhere in the
West, the oil-financed apologists had the choice between condemning the
jihadists and covering up for them. One of their major mistakes was to attack
the target-the United States-instead ofthejihadists.
In fact, the apologists were forced by their ties to the Wahabis to cover up
for the political objectives of the terrorists, and for a simple reason: in the
long term, both the Wahabis and the terrorists have the same objectives. If the
terrorists are exposed, so too will their ideology be exposed. If that happens,
the long-term objectives of the lobbies that are working within the law
internationally and in the United States will be exposed; and just as much as
al Qaeda, the lobbies too believe that the dar el Islam is destined, and in fact, obligated to ovewhelm and absorb the dar el harb. As mentioned in an
earlier chapter, the various parties who debated the September 11 attacks on al
Jazeera television were not arguing about whether the attacks were wrong or
right; they were arguing about whether they'd been mounted at the right time.
It remains to explain
why the American public and the international community were not informed or
educated as to the jihadists' real attitude regarding world affairs. Why were
the terrorists presented either positively, as "freedom fighters," or
negatively, as "mere gangs," and never realistically, as an
ideological network with a worldview rooted in hundreds of years of tradition
and example (the caliphate), and now aiming at the destruction of the world international
structure and the United States in particular? The fundamentalists realized
that they were operating in an ideal context: Not only were they not on their
enemies' radar, but someone on the "inside" was blurring the enemy's
understanding of the networks.
To know what was in
the mind of Osama when he engineered what he called "blessed strikes"
(al-darabat al mubaraka),
short of interviewing him directly or reading his memoirs, requires us to
connect the dots from a combination of statements, over a span of a decade at
least, and to read that material with the deepest possible knowledge of the
movement that produced bin Laden.
It is a certainty
that the man who ordered the destruction of the American centers of finance and
of military and political power aimed to create chaos in the United States. The
mass killing of civilians and persons in the military bureaucracy does not
produce a battlefield defeat, as Pearl Harbor did. Although the element of
strategic surprise was the most common characteristic of the two acts, Japan's
ultimate goal was to break down U.S. military power in the Pacific, hence
removing American deterrence from Japanese calculations in Asia. The direct
outcome the jihad war room sought from the events of September 11 was to bring
chaos to the American mainland, leaving U.S. forces around the world untouched.
The real and first objective of the Ghazwa (jihad raid, as Osama called it) was
to trigger a chain of reactions, on both the popular and political levels.
Osama expected up to a million Americans to demonstrate in the streets against
their government, as Israelis had done against their cabinets in the 1980s. He
hoped that Congress would split in two and become paralyzed, campuses would
rebel, and companies would collapse. He wanted chaos and a divided nation,
scared and turning upon itself. He believed, for many reasons, that the time
was ripe for the fall of the giant. (See "Warning to the United
States," October 7, 2001, http://news. bbc.co.uk/l fhi/world/south_asiaJ1585636.stm.)
Based on how things
are dealt with in his part of the world, Osama probably was expecting
Americans to attack Arabs and Muslims in some sort of ethnic strife
model, in which thousands of armed civilians wreak havoc on entire
neighborhoods. He fantasized about Arab and Muslim blood spilled in the streets
of American cities. AI Qaeda projected mass retaliations similar to sectarian
backlashes in the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent. Ironically, in the
first days after September 11 some jihadist callers were reporting alleged
backlashes live to alJazeera. Had such a nightmare
occurred in America, al Qaeda would have ruled in Muslim lands and recruited
hundreds of thousands of new members.
With chaos and ethnic
wounds raging inside the country, the engineer of mass death projected that
America would sow grapes of wrath abroad. Had he had such military power, and
had his "caliphate" been attacked in similar ways, he would have unleashed
Armageddon against the infidel world. Reversing the psychology, bin Laden
expected the U.S. military to carpet bomb Afghanistan and elsewhere. He thought
he would draw the Yankees' raw power into the entire Muslim world and expected
a global intifada to ensue. Interestingly enough, the jihadists anticipated
millions of deaths in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Some indications lead me
to guess that the sultan of the mujahedin wanted the "great Satan" to
do the unthinkable and resort to doomsday devices. (See for example Sulaiman
Abu Ghaith, official spokesperson of the organization in a message aired on alJazeera, October 14,2001, "Retaliation for Air
Strikes on Afghanistan," http://news.bbc.co.uk/lfhi/world/middle_east/
1598146.stm.)
In the web site and alJazeera debates that followed and continue to this day,
we can see the emergence of three remarkably strategic consequences that al
Qaeda hopes for. A long-term "internal" tension in the United States,
one fed by actions such as sniper activities, dirty bombs, and government
reactions, will lead to what they hope will become an "ethnic
crumbling." Once that stage is reached, an irreversible mechanism will
take over. In parallel, a world intifada will explode in several spots fueled
by the jihadists around the world. With these two cataclysmic developments
taking place simultaneously, bin Laden or his successors will hope to witness
the withdrawal of U.S. forces deployed worldwide and the general collapse of
that nation. These end of-times projections were made before September 11 and
resumed afterward, and in fact continue today. They explain clearly the
reasoning behind the attacks on September 11, and subsequent strikes elsewhere
such as the March 11, 2004, bombing in Madrid, the Saudi attacks, as well as
strikes in Turkey, Tunisia, Kashmir, Chechnya, Moscow, London, and the ongoing
bursts in Iraq's Sunni triangle.
However, and as we
will discuss later, what was not on the jihadist map of operations was the
unexpected U.S. reaction and how the American public backed the government's
counteroffensives, as well as the international solidarity with the war on
terror.
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