By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Longest-serving president in power in Latin America

As President Donald Trump sinks alleged drug boats of Venezuela and gathers U.S. forces in the region, raising the possibility of land strikes, the country’s opposition has come to see his approach, however risky, as its best and only path to topple the government of authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro.

If Trump does attack Venezuela, it is unlikely to end well. Short of an invasion, a move for which there is little domestic appetite and for which the current mobilization is inadequate, a show of force will probably not be enough to bring down Maduro’s regime.

But, overwhelmed by illness, at the beginning of December 2012, Chávez put an end to internal disputes and unequivocally blessed Maduro to lead chavismo and Venezuela. The “son of Chávez” then inaugurated a government in which, year after year, he defied criticism of his electoral system, protests, sanctions, arrest warrants, possible rebellions, international isolation, and speculation about his future.

The leader mocked by some is now the longest-serving president in power in Latin America: 12 years and seven months. Maduro survived predictions and ridicule, but along the way, Venezuela lost millions of inhabitants, 72% of its economy, democratic legitimacy in the eyes of much of the world, and many of its most important international allies. The Venezuelan president says he now faces an “existential situation.” Will he be able to defy predictions again and survive the military and diplomatic pressure from US President Donald Trump?

 

The ‘son of Chávez’

Maduro’s inauguration ceremony took a dramatic turn at one point as a man in a red jacket rushed toward the podium in Venezuela’s National Assembly. “They could have shot me right here. Security has failed,” Maduro said after the man was taken away.

Mockery of Maduro existed even before he took office as the president of  Venezuela in 2013, when he was just one among several potential successors to the cancer-stricken leader, despite having served as foreign minister and vice president. Maduro received only minority support from followers of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), and his circle, according to reports, was in strong tension with supporters of the influential Diosdado Cabello, then president of the National Assembly, for being the chosen one in a country dominated by uncertainty.

But, overwhelmed by illness, at the beginning of December 2012, Chávez put an end to internal disputes and unequivocally blessed Maduro to lead Chavismo and Venezuela. The “son of Chávez” then inaugurated a government in which, year after year, he defied criticism of his electoral system, protests, sanctions, arrest warrants, possible rebellions, international isolation, and speculation about his future.

The leader mocked by some is now the longest-serving president in power in Latin America: 12 years and seven months. Maduro survived predictions and ridicule, but along the way, Venezuela lost millions of inhabitants, 72% of its economy, democratic legitimacy in the eyes of much of the world, and many of its most important international allies. The Venezuelan president says he now faces an “existential situation.” Will he be able to defy predictions again and survive the military and diplomatic pressure from US President Donald Trump?

Maduro greets the people after a vote on April 14, 2013, in Caracas, Venezuela.

Maduro was quick to regain the floor and spoke for more than two hours, vowing to crack down on any coup attempts to remove him from the presidency and slamming political opponents for waging what he called a “dirty election campaign” against him.

Mockery of Maduro existed even before he took office as president of Venezuela in 2013, when he was just one among several potential successors to the cancer-stricken leader, despite having served as foreign minister and vice president. Maduro received only minority support from followers of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), and his circle, according to reports, was in strong tension with supporters of the influential Diosdado Cabello, then president of the National Assembly, for being the chosen one in a country dominated by uncertainty.

But, overwhelmed by illness, at the beginning of December 2012, Chávez put an end to internal disputes and unequivocally blessed Maduro to lead Chavismo and Venezuela. The “son of Chávez” then inaugurated a government in which, year after year, he defied criticism of his electoral system, protests, sanctions, arrest warrants, possible rebellions, international isolation, and speculation about his future.

The leader mocked by some is now the longest-serving president in power in Latin America: 12 years and seven months. Maduro survived predictions and ridicule, but along the way, Venezuela lost millions of inhabitants, 72% of its economy, democratic legitimacy in the eyes of much of the world, and many of its most important international allies. The Venezuelan president says he now faces an “existential situation.” Will he be able to defy predictions again and survive the military and diplomatic pressure from US President Donald Trump?

 

The ‘son of Chávez’

“If some unforeseen circumstance should arise that prevents me from continuing as president of Venezuela, my firm opinion, as firm as the full moon, is that, in that scenario, which would require calling presidential elections, you should choose Nicolás Maduro,” said Chávez in December 2012, hours before traveling to Cuba to continue his treatment. The president would return to Caracas only to die, but the name of his heir was already clear.

Maduro himself says he does not know why Chávez chose him among several candidates because he never aspired to “be president.” “But he was preparing me,” he said shortly after Chávez’s death.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez gives his first press conference after winning national elections on October 9, 2012, in Caracas, Venezuela.

They weren’t blood relations, but in one of his last public appearances, Chavez tapped Maduro as his replacement.

“My firm opinion, as clear as the full moon – irrevocable, absolute, total – is … that you elect Nicolas Maduro as president,” Chavez said in December, waving a copy of the Venezuelan Constitution as he spoke. “I ask this of you from my heart. He is one of the young leaders with the greatest ability to continue, if I cannot.”

Maduro was a high-profile face in Chavez’s administration. So was his wife, Cilia Flores, whom Chavez named as Venezuela’s attorney general last year.

Serving as both the country’s vice president and foreign minister, Maduro often was seen in the front row of Chavez’s news conferences and traveled to Cuba many times alongside Chavez as he underwent cancer treatment.

The son of a political activist from a traditional Venezuelan party, Maduro began preparing very early. As a student, he joined the Socialist League and began working as a bus driver for the Caracas Metro.

His activism made him a union leader, from where he jumped into politics. Union and political activity allowed him to meet two decisive people in his life: Cilia Flores and Chávez.

Flores was a young lawyer, and Maduro was a rising union leader. She was one of Chávez’s legal defenders over the 1992 coup attempt. Flores and Maduro visited him in the Yare prison.

Chávez’s political strength was largely fueled by his ability to personally connect with voters.

And that personal connection with his supporters is “what’s held things together in Venezuela,” according to Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

Chávez’s public remarks supporting Maduro likely bolstered support for him among fervent Chavistas, Corrales said.

“When popular presidents make an endorsement, that always has an effect,” Corrales said. When he named Maduro as vice president, Chavez noted his extensive experience on “different battlefronts.”

“The bourgeoisie make fun of Nicolas Maduro because he was a bus driver,” Chavez said, “and look where he’s going now.” Chávez’s political strength was largely fueled by his ability to personally connect with voters.

And that personal connection with his supporters is “what’s held things together in Venezuela,” according to Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

Chávez’s public remarks supporting Maduro likely bolstered support for him among fervent Chavistas, Corrales said. “When popular presidents make an endorsement, that always has an effect,” Corrales said.

When he named Maduro as vice president, Chavez noted his extensive experience on “different battlefronts.”

“The bourgeoisie make fun of Nicolas Maduro because he was a bus driver,” Chavez said, “and look where he’s going now.”

The path of love, politics, and loyalty began. Flores became Maduro’s partner and, eventually, the first woman to lead the National Assembly and the person many today see as the “power behind the throne,” Carmen Arteaga, PhD in Political Science and professor at Simón Bolívar University, told CNN. And he became the “son of Chávez.”

 

The mysteries of Cuban support

When Chávez was elected president in 1999, Maduro entered the National Assembly. As the then-president gained power inside and outside Venezuela, Maduro climbed the ranks, first in the National Assembly and then in government as a good second, always obedient. 

Less than a month after seizing power in 1959, Fidel Castro embarked on his first trip as leader to seek support for his revolution. The young rebel leader’s destination wasn’t Moscow or Washington; it was Caracas. Venezuela’s government had secretly supported Castro and his rebels with funds and weapons during their fight to oust US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista. Now, a victorious Castro had a new request: to Loan Cuba $300 million worth of oil.

“Maduro was always an underestimated leader. There were many possible successors when Chávez fell ill. But none achieved what he did: on one hand, Cuban support, and on the other, distributing power within chavismo,” said Rodríguez.

The relationship with Cuba spans decades and has various forms and mysteries. One of the few unauthorized biographies of Maduro – “De Verde a Maduro: el sucesor de Hugo Chávez” (a play on words, since “maduro” also means ripe; “From green to Maduro: The Successor of Hugo Chávez”) – says that the current president may have been trained in revolutionary politics on the island during his youth.

Less than a month after seizing power in 1959, Fidel Castro embarked on his first trip as leader to seek support for his revolution. The young rebel leader’s destination wasn’t Moscow or Washington, it was Caracas.

Venezuela’s government had secretly supported Castro and his rebels with funds and weapons during their fight to oust US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista. Now, a victorious Castro had a new request: to Loan Cuba 300 million dollars worth of oil.

Neither he nor official biographies mention this alleged experience. But Maduro did build, first with the government of Fidel and Raúl Castro, and later with Miguel Díaz-Canel, a bond that is among the most important for today’s Venezuela. And that, according to former officials of Trump’s first administration, was decisive for the president to anticipate and contain, through Cuban security services, the opposition uprising of April 2019, among other things.

Maduro deepened his ties with the Castros when he became Chávez’s foreign minister in 2006, and became a “key player” in 2011, when the then-president fell ill and traveled to Cuba for treatment. From then on, he was the key link in managing the strategic relationship between the Castros and chavismo.

That relationship helped Maduro strengthen his position to be the successor to Chávez, who had the charisma and influence that none of his potential heirs possessed. And also to oil a narrative first perfected by Fidel Castro and then by Chávez himself – both leaders in the Latin American left. It was an anti-imperialist and anti-US narrative, amplified by geopolitical alliances with historic US rivals.

 

The start of the ever-returning cycle

Maduro leaned on that epic from the very start of his first administration. The “son of Chávez” received his blessing, but not all his votes. In the April 2013 election to choose the late president’s successor, the Chavista candidate defeated opposition leader Henrique Capriles by just 1.59% of the vote. Six months earlier, in the October 2012 presidential elections, Chávez had beaten Capriles by a margin of 9.5%.

Suspicious of the government’s electoral transparency, Capriles and the opposition refused to accept the results. Even Chavismo itself, through Cabello, showed Maduro its dissatisfaction with the result and called for self-criticism.

He responded that it was a “legal, fair, and constitutional” victory and celebrated Chavismo’s continued rule.

But there began the pattern that best defines the self-proclaimed defender of “popular and revolutionary democracy” to this day: contested elections, opposition in the streets, allegations of repression and persecution of dissent, and distribution of benefits within chavismo to avoid internal challenges and retain power. Outside Venezuela, the “Maduro model” relied on the support and “know-how” of the traditional US adversaries: China, Russia, and Iran.

 

 

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