By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

In an article titled Xi Jinping's Ready for War Speech I outlined the basic problems involving the South China Sea.

Giving a new incident in yesterday’s press conference, Malaya admitted that Manila was running out of options and that China’s steady pressure in disputed waters was “pushing us to the wall.” According to a report by BenarNews, when asked whether the Philippines might file a new international legal case against China, to complement the case that it brought to an arbitral tribunal in The Hague in 2013, he refused to rule it out, saying that “all options are on the table.”

 

Who claims what?

On Monday, the Philippines lodged a formal protest with China and requested that it desist from “escalatory actions” at the Scarborough Shoal, after detecting two coast Chinese guard vessels in and around the shoal on January 5 and January 10. One of these was a ship that the Philippine government and press have dubbed “the monster” – the 165-meter-long vessel 5901, the largest vessel in the China Coast Guard (CCG)’s fleet. The protest was one of nearly 200 such protests that the Philippines has lodged with China since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came to office in mid-2022.

In comments to the press yesterday, Jonathan Malaya, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, repeated this month’s various calls for Chinese vessels to withdraw from the shoal.

“We were surprised about the increasing aggression being showed by the People’s Republic of China in deploying the monster ship,” Malaya told a press conference in Manila yesterday, as per Reuters. He went on to describe the deployment of the huge ship as “an escalation” that was “illegal” and “unacceptable.” He added, “It is also a clear attempt to intimidate our fishermen and deprive them of their legitimate livelihood.”

Scarborough Shoal has long been a subject of contention between Manila and Beijing. Despite lying well within the Philippines’ EEZ, the feature has been under Chinese control since a protracted stand-off between the two countries in 2012. Recent tensions have focused on Chinese efforts to assert aggressively Chinese sovereignty over the feature, and to prevent Filipino fishermen from entering the shoal’s internal lagoon and fishing in its vicinity. This has resulted in a litany of confrontations that have seen CCG vessels ram Philippine Coast Guard and fisheries bureau ships, and douse them with high-pressure water cannons. Similar confrontations have also unfolded at other Philippine-claimed features in the South China Sea, most notably at Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands.

In response to Malaya’s comments, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson asserted that the CCG vessels’ activities around Scarborough Shoal were lawful and “fully justified.”

“We call on the Philippines once again to immediately stop all infringement activities, provocations and false accusations, and stop all its actions that jeopardize peace and stability and complicate the situation in the South China Sea,” the spokesperson added.

This series of incursions suggests that 2025 will be another year of friction between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. The likely outcome is that, for all the uncertainties attending the advent of the second Trump administration in Washington, the Philippines will likely continue to deepen its relationships with key partners, chief among them, the United States.

On Monday, the Philippines, Japan, and the United States vowed to consolidate and strengthen their cooperation in the face of rising tensions in Asia’s waters. During a call, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden met the three leaders and “agreed to enhance and deepen economic, maritime and technology cooperation,” according to Marcos’ office. The call followed a landmark trilateral summit meeting of Marcos, Biden, and then Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington in April, during which China’s growing maritime assertiveness also featured prominently.

At yesterday’s press conference, Malaya admitted that Manila was running out of options and that China’s steady pressure in disputed waters was “pushing us to the wall.” According to a report by BenarNews, when asked whether the Philippines might file a new international legal case against China, to complement the case that it brought to an arbitral tribunal in The Hague in 2013, he refused to rule it out, saying that “all options are on the table.”

In any event, Malaya said the Philippines would not back down. “We do not waver or cower in the face of intimidation,” he said. “On the contrary, it strengthens our resolve because we know we are in the right.”

Japan is gravely concerned about actions being repeated in the South China Sea that are raising tensions, and strongly opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo, its foreign minister said on Wednesday.

Speaking during a visit to the Philippines, Takeshi Iwaya also said Japan would continue to provide Manila with development assistance and support for its maritime security, adding a trilateral mechanism that also includes the United States would be strengthened when a new administration takes over in Washington.

Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya

Iwaya's visit follows a virtual call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden where the three leaders affirmed their "trilateral arrangement" in deepening economic, security and technology cooperation in the face of growing tensions in the region.

"Japan strongly opposes any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force or build up tension in the region. We strongly ask for easing of tensions," Iwaya told a joint press conference with his Philippine counterpart in Manila.

U.S. ally the Philippines has been embroiled in wrangles at sea with China in the past two years as the two countries face off regularly around disputed features in the South China Sea that fall inside Manila's exclusive economic zone.

Both countries have accused each other of encroachment, while the Philippines has condemned Beijing over the presence and conduct of its coast guard fleet.    

Marco Rubio, US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of state, said yesterday that a "dangerous" China cheated its way to superpower status as he vowed to ramp up support to deter any invasion of Taiwan.

Rubio laid out his worldview to fellow senators at a confirmation hearing that took place just as Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in their 15-month war, a long-sought goal of US President Joe Biden's outgoing administration.

Rubio, who is expected to secure confirmation easily, described China as "the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever faced" and warned of drastic impacts if the US does not act.

China says it has sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, despite a 2016 international arbitral ruling that said its claim has no legal basis.

Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo said his country's relationship with Tokyo was among the most resilient and dynamic in the region.

The two ministers discussed the security situation in the East and South China Seas and their work together amid an evolving geopolitical landscape, he said, adding the two remain committed to a regional rules-based order.

As tensions have increased in the South China Sea over the past three years, the Marcos administration has significantly strengthened its security cooperation with Japan and the U.S., both of which share its concerns about China’s growing maritime assertiveness. This has resulted in joint military exercises and patrols between the three nations, agreements to increase U.S. access to Philippine military facilities, and last July, the signing of a Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan that will facilitate the entry of soldiers into each other’s country for joint military exercises.

In a January 2 article for Fulcrum, Ian Storey painted a picture of what the coming year could bring in the South China Sea. “Absent any kind of credible conflict management mechanisms,” he wrote, “what we can expect to see this year in the South China Sea is more ramming, water cannoning, harassment, military posturing, arms buying, and terraforming. In other words, business as usual.”

Given that the Philippines’ “assertive transparency” campaign has seemingly reached the limits of its effectiveness, one of the big questions is how it will respond to the almost inevitable Chinese actions.

At yesterday’s press conference, Malaya admitted that Manila was running out of options and that China’s steady pressure in disputed waters was “pushing us to the wall.” According to a report by BenarNews, when asked whether the Philippines might file a new international legal case against China, to complement the case that it brought to an arbitral tribunal in The Hague in 2013, he refused to rule it out, saying that “all options are on the table.”

In any event, Malaya said the Philippines would not back down. “We do not waver or cower in the face of intimidation,” he said. “On the contrary, it strengthens our resolve because we know we are in the right.”

 

 

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