By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

US forces are ready to conduct a second, bigger wave of strikes

President Donald Trump said Saturday that the United States will "run" Venezuela and tap its huge oil reserves after snatching leftist leader Nicolas Maduro out of the country during a bombing raid on Caracas.

Following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife under the cover of airstrikes in the Venezuelan capital on Saturday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, in turn, expressed his “deep alarm” regarding the situation through a statement delivered by his spokesperson.

The first known direct operation on Venezuelan soil since the US began strikes in September marked a significant escalation in the administration’s months-long pressure campaign on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government. The strike has not been acknowledged by Venezuelan officials.

US President Donald Trump first referred to the operation in an interview on Friday with John Catsimatidis on WABC radio in New York, saying the US had knocked out some type of “big facility where ships come from”.

The CIA, under directives of President Trump, conducted the first known U.S. attack on Venezuelan territory when it carried out a drone strike on a port facility in Venezuela last week, a government official familiar with the operation said. The strike marks a new escalation of the Trump administration’s campaign against President Nicolás Maduro’s government, which has included dozens of attacks on supposed drug smuggling boats. A separate U.S. strike on Monday killed two alleged “narco-terrorists” in the Pacific Ocean.

 

No muddy boots marching on distant soil and, certainly, no high-minded ideas of nation-building.

The US military operation that whisked away Venezuela’s sitting President from a fortified compound in the heart of the capital, Caracas, neatly unified three aims of the Trump administration: stopping the flow of illicit drugs across the southern border, snuffing out illegal immigration, and countering China’s lengthening shadow over Latin America.

The UN noted reports that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was detained following a wide-scale US military strike on the capital, Caracas.

Meanwhile, Volker Turk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed concern over US intervention in Venezuela and urged all parties to exercise restraint and fully respect the UN Charter and international human rights law.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights posted on X that the protection of the Venezuelan people represents the highest priority and should serve as the basis and reference for any subsequent actions or measures.

The UN official noted reports that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was detained following a wide-scale US military strike on the capital, Caracas.

Meanwhile, Volker Turk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed concern over US intervention in Venezuela and urged all parties to exercise restraint and fully respect the UN Charter and international human rights law.

Earlier today, the US President announced wide-scale military strikes on Venezuela, including the capital Caracas, targeting strategic locations in the country, and resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and their removal from the country. 

Handcuffed, blindfolded, and wearing noise-cancelling headphones, Maduro was captured on TV cameras as he landed in New York to face “American justice on American soil”.

Madura and his wife are set to face drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges emerging from a 2020 indictment, in a trial that could begin as early as Jan 5 in the Southern District Court of New York.

Few doubt that Maduro oversaw a brutal regime that repressed political freedoms and human rights and enabled drug trafficking. But the US strikes were illegal under international law: The United Nations charter forbids such actions unless they are for self-defense against an imminent threat. Even then, the use of force must be necessary and proportional.

And as head of state, Maduro was entitled to full personal immunity from prosecution in US courts. The catch here is that he was not recognized as a legitimately elected leader by the US and many other nations, even though he enjoyed close relations with US geopolitical rivals China and Russia.

The timing of Maduro’s capture, just hours after he had reportedly met a Chinese envoy to reaffirm strategic ties, sent a message to China that the Western Hemisphere remains a US sphere of influence where Beijing’s presence will be challenged.

The operation comes after China, in December 202,5 war-gamed combat operations in the Western Hemisphere and released an official strategy for Latin America, notable in refusing to see the region as having special significance for the US.

China, which condemned the action as “blatant use of force against a sovereign state, has already displaced the US as the top trading partner for nearly all of Latin America’s 33 nations.

 

Its investments in the region.

 

Which spans energy, mining, manufacturing and infrastructure, and stands at around US$240 billion (S$309 billion). It is also aggressively acquiring stakes in fintech and artificial intelligence-driven start-ups.

Critics say China can draw lessons from the US action in Venezuela for a potential invasion of Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by Beijing.

Gregory Poling, who directs the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the US action was yet another blow to international law and “normalized military adventurism” for China or Russia. “This model of an unchecked American presidency makes foreign policy more unpredictable because decisions are based on the President’s personal whims more than any coherent vision of the national interest,” he added.

Poling was dismissive of the suggestion that the actions in Venezuela sent a message of US resolve to act to protect its interests. “Some may say that because a degree of sycophancy is necessary from US allies these days,” he said.

“But even those who recognize that Maduro was illegitimate will view the operation as legally dubious and destabilizing. Especially with President Trump suggesting that the US will now administer the country to extract its oil rather than support the opposition leader.”

While Americans are likely to approve a show of force tinged with an avowedly moral objective executed flawlessly, any bump in Trump’s popularity is likely to be short-lived. Much will depend on what comes next.

The US President has promised to “run” Venezuela in the aftermath of Maduro’s removal, opening the possibility of a messy, protracted US involvement. He has also committed to investment by American oil companies in Venezuela, intending of building up oil infrastructure in the country.

The US President has promised to “run” Venezuela in the aftermath of Maduro’s removal, opening the possibility of a messy, protracted US involvement. He has also committed to investment by American oil companies in Venezuela to build up oil infrastructure in the country.

But if, that hat will take time. And a significant commitment of resources and political capital, apart from running counter to Trump’s political objectives by taking him further away from his America First mantra, which unites his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base.

Already, he has cut ties with Georgia congresswoman and America First evangelist Marjorie Taylor Greene over his foreign preoccupations. Greene, who is resigning from her seat over differences with Trump, took to social media to protest.

“This is what many in MAGA thought they voted to end,” she posted. “Boy, were we wrong.”

Owning the backyard and sending a message to China. Resolving the Maduro problem will help the US address Trump’s priorities: migration, drugs and China.

Dr Joseph Ledford, a US foreign policy historian at the Hoover Institution, said the Trump administration had “identified the Maduro regime as the nexus for all the major threats facing the hemisphere, from allying with hostile extra-hemispheric powers and supporting transnational criminal organisations to weaponised mass migration”.

Tackling the Maduro problem also marked America’s definitive return to hemispheric defence, which the recent National Security Strategy articulated, he said.

President Donald Trump on Saturday, 3 January, said the US would take control of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves and recruit American companies to invest billions of dollars to refurbish the country’s gutted oil industry.

Venezuela is sitting on a massive 303 billion barrels worth of crude, about a fifth of the world’s global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

A US-led revamp could eventually make Venezuela a much bigger supplier of oil, and could create opportunities for Western oil companies, and could serve as a new source of production. It could also keep broader prices in check, although lower prices might disincentivise some US companies from producing oil.

The kind of oil Venezuela is sitting on, heavy, sour crude, requires special equipment and a high level of technical prowess to produce.

The United States, the world’s largest oil producer, has light, sweet crude, which is good for making gasoline but not much else. Heavy, sour crude like the oil from Venezuela is crucial for certain products made in the refining process, including diesel, asphalt, and fuels for factories and other heavy equipment.

Unlocking Venezuelan oil could be particularly beneficial to the United States: Venezuela is nearby, and its oil is relatively cheap.

Venezuela is home to the largest proven oil reserve on Earth, but its potential far outweighs its actual output: Venezuela produces only about 1 million barrels of oil per day, about 0.8% of global crude production.

International sanctions on the Venezuelan government and a deep economic crisis contributed to the decline of the country’s oil industry, but so did a lack of investment and maintenance, according to the EIA..

Critics say it means a more insular America, tending to its own backyard.

But Dr Ledford said capturing Maduro was not about retrenchment of US power.“

The Trump administration acknowledges in both word and deed that the US cannot persist as a global superpower without securing its own hemisphere. Indeed, America cannot deter enemies and support allies without it. “What would be the point of great power competition with China if the US couldn’t counter China in its own hemisphere?

“Foreign policy starts in your own neighborhood. But this doesn’t mean the US won’t project power to protect its interests elsewhere, especially in Asia,” he said.

 

 

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